Short‑term outlook:
The market will treat the August 27 release of unaudited Q2 and H1 2025 results as a “pre‑announcement” catalyst. Because the figures are still unaudited, investors will focus first on the headline metrics (revenues, AUM growth, profit margin) and any forward‑looking commentary. If the unaudited results show double‑digit AUM growth, beat‑and‑raise earnings per share (EPS) and a solid net‑income beat, the stock is likely to rally 3‑5 % in the next 1‑2 days as traders price in a stronger earnings trajectory. Conversely, a miss on AUM or a muted profit beat will trigger a quick sell‑off, potentially dragging the price 2‑4 % lower, especially given the low sentiment score (20) that suggests limited upside expectations from the broader market.
Technical and liquidity considerations:
NOAH’s shares have been trading in a tight 20‑day range (≈ USD 4.80‑5.10) with the 20‑day moving average (20DMA) just below the current price, indicating a short‑term “bounce‑back” bias. Volume has been light (≈ 0.5 M shares/day), so any earnings‑driven move will be amplified by a modest trade flow. A break above the USD 5.00 resistance on strong unaudited results could trigger a short‑term breakout, while a failure to clear that level will likely see the price revert to the USD 4.85‑4.90 support as profit‑taking resumes.
Actionable trade idea:
- Bullish scenario: If the unaudited release signals a ≥ 10 % AUM increase and EPS beat, go long at the current price with a tight stop just below the USD 4.90 support. Target the next resistance at USD 5.20‑5.30, which aligns with a 3‑5 % upside.
- Bearish scenario: If the results show AUM stagnation or a profit miss, consider a short or a protective put, placing a stop just above the USD 5.00 resistance (to avoid a false breakout). Aim for a 2‑3 % downside to the USD 4.80‑4.85 support zone.
Overall, the unaudited Q2/H1 2025 results will act as a short‑term price driver; the direction hinges on whether the disclosed metrics exceed the market’s modest expectations. Traders should monitor the press release and any immediate analyst commentary for the first 30 minutes of trading on August 27 to confirm the bias before positioning.