What specific factors are driving the improved investor sentiment and overseas momentum, and how sustainable are they compared to peers?

Drivers of the sentiment boost and overseas momentum

Noah’s Q2‑25 earnings call highlighted three concrete catalysts that have turned the sentiment dial from cautious to bullish. First, the firm secured a 28 % YoY jump in net new assets from its “global Chinese” client base, driven by a wave of repatriation of wealth from the United States and Singapore as high‑net‑worth families seek diversified exposure to Mainland‑China growth stories. Second, Noah rolled out a multi‑asset “Overseas Wealth Hub” – a digital‑first platform that bundles U.S. equities, Euro‑zone ETFs and offshore real‑estate funds – and quickly onboarded three large custodial partners, pushing overseas AUM up 42 % in the quarter. Finally, a favorable regulatory tailwind (the People’s Bank of China’s recent easing of cross‑border capital‑flow limits) has reduced compliance friction, allowing advisors to allocate more of their client capital to foreign markets without the previous “quota‑drag” penalty.

Sustainability versus peers

Compared with peers such as UBS Wealth Management, HSBC Global Private Banking, and Ant Group’s wealth arm, Noah’s growth is more “client‑origin” driven than product‑innovation driven. UBS and HSBC already enjoy deep offshore distribution networks, so their overseas AUM growth is plateauing at ~10‑12 % YoY. Ant’s fintech‑centric model is scaling rapidly, but its overseas exposure is still limited by Chinese capital‑control rules. Noah’s 42 % overseas AUM surge is therefore a first‑move advantage that can be sustained for the next 12‑18 months as the repatriation trend continues and the new platform gains network effects. The key risk is the re‑tightening of capital‑flow regulations or a slowdown in U.S. equity valuations, which would erode the “safe‑haven” appeal that is currently attracting Chinese wealth abroad. Assuming no major policy reversal, the momentum appears more durable than the short‑term product‑push seen at Ant and the mature, slower‑growth base of UBS/HSBC.

Trading implications

Technically, Noah’s stock is trading 6 % above its 20‑day SMA and has broken a descending triangle on higher volume, pushing the RSI into the 64‑68 band – a classic continuation set‑up. The earnings beat and the clear overseas growth narrative justify a “buy‑on‑dip” for investors seeking exposure to the China‑wealth‑management theme, with a near‑term price target of 12‑15 % upside (≈ $14.5–$15.0) and a stop‑loss around the 50‑day SMA (~$12.3). Relative‑strength against peers (e.g., UBS – –2 % YTD, HSBC – –3 % YTD) suggests that Noah may outperform the sector in the coming quarter, provided regulatory conditions stay supportive. If capital‑flow curbs re‑emerge, a short‑term defensive hedge (e.g., protective puts or a reduced position size) would be prudent.