How does the current valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA, price/ cash) compare to peers in the oncology/biotech sector? | NKTR (Aug 07, 2025) | Candlesense

How does the current valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA, price/ cash) compare to peers in the oncology/biotech sector?

TL;DR

  • The press‑release you shared does **not contain the numbers needed to calculate Nektar’s current P/E, EV/EBITDA, or price‑to‑cash‑ratio.**
  • To answer the “how does it compare to peers?” question you’ll need three additional data points that are not in the release:
  1. Current market price (or market cap).
  2. Trailing twelve‑month (TTM) net earnings (or EPS) and EBITDA (or a proxy).
  3. Enterprise value (EV) – i.e., market cap + net debt (or cash‑adjusted debt).
  • Once you have those numbers you can compute the three multiples and then benchmark them against a set of comparable oncology/biotech companies (e.g., Gilead (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Bristol‑Myers Squibb (BMY), Moderna (MRNA), and other mid‑cap biotech peers such as *BeiGene (BGNE), *Sorrento (SRTR), **Celsius (CELH), etc.).

Below is a step‑by‑step guide to pull the data, perform the calculations, and interpret the results, followed by a snapshot of typical valuation ranges you’ll see in the oncology/biotech space in mid‑2025.


1️⃣ What you need to calculate the multiples

Multiple Required Inputs Typical Source
P/E (Price‑to‑Earnings) Share price × Shares outstanding = Market cap
TTM Net Income (or EPS)
Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Yahoo Finance, Company 10‑K/10‑Q
EV/EBITDA Enterprise Value = Market cap + Total Debt – Cash & Marketable securities
TTM EBITDA
Same as above; debt from balance sheet, cash from the press‑release ($175.9 M)
Price‑to‑Cash (P/Cash) Market cap
Cash & marketable securities (the $175.9 M figure)
Cash figure is already in the release; market cap from share price

Note: Because NKTR is currently a loss‑making biotech (most R&D‑heavy firms have negative earnings), the P/E may be “N/A” or extremely high. In those cases analysts usually look at EV/EBITDA (if EBITDA is positive) or EV/Revenue, and price‑to‑cash as a liquidity/valuation sanity‑check.


2️⃣ How to pull the numbers (quick‑lookup guide)

Data Point Where to Find It (as of Aug 2025)
Share price Real‑time ticker NKTR on NYSE, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance
Shares outstanding NKTR 10‑Q (Q2 2025) – “Weighted‑average shares outstanding”
Net income (TTM) NKTR 10‑K (FY 2024) + Q2 2025 earnings – adjust for any restatements
EBITDA (TTM) NKTR 10‑K/10‑Q – “Operating income + Depreciation & Amortization”
Total debt Balance‑sheet line “Long‑term debt” (NKTR has little to no debt, but verify)
Cash & marketable securities Already disclosed: $175.9 M (June 30 2025)
Peer data Same sources for each comparable company (use Bloomberg or FactSet for a clean peer‑set).

3️⃣ Example Calculation (illustrative only – numbers are hypothetical for the purpose of showing the method)

Item NKTR (illustrative) Peer A (e.g., GILD) Peer B (e.g., BGNE)
Share price $6.80 $70.00 $12.00
Shares outstanding 135 M 1,500 M 110 M
Market cap $918 M $105 B $1.32 B
Cash & marketable securities $176 M $7 B $420 M
Total debt $0 (net cash) $3 B $200 M
Enterprise value (EV) $918 M (cash‑adjusted) $101 B $1.10 B
TTM Net income –$120 M (loss) $9 B $30 M
P/E N/A (negative earnings) 12× 44×
TTM EBITDA $30 M $13 B $210 M
EV/EBITDA 30.6× 7.8× 5.2×
Price‑to‑Cash 5.2× 10.0× 3.1×

In this illustrative scenario NKTR’s EV/EBITDA (~30×) is well above the peer median (≈6‑8×), reflecting the market’s pricing of higher risk / earlier‑stage pipeline assets. Its price‑to‑cash (~5×) is mid‑range – higher than cash‑rich peers (e.g., Gilead) but lower than many early‑stage biotech peers that trade at 7‑10× cash.


4️⃣ Typical Valuation Ranges in the Oncology/Biotech Space (mid‑2025)

Multiple Peer‑group median Low‑end (value) High‑end (growth)
P/E (for profitable biotech) 12‑20× 5‑8× (value) 30‑50× (high‑growth)
EV/EBITDA 7‑9× 4‑5× 12‑15×
Price‑to‑Cash 4‑7× 2‑3× 8‑12×
EV/Revenue (often used when EBITDA is negative) 4‑6× 2‑3× 8‑10×

Why the spread?

- Stage of development: Early‑stage companies (pre‑revenue, heavy R&D) often have negative earnings and therefore rely on EV/Revenue or price‑to‑cash.

- Pipeline risk: Oncology assets that are in Phase III or have FDA approvals command premium multiples.

- Balance‑sheet health: Companies with a sizable cash runway (≥ $150‑$200 M) tend to trade at lower price‑to‑cash because investors view them as less risky.


5️⃣ How NKTR Likely Stacks Up (based on publicly available data up to Aug 2025)

Metric What we know from the release What we don’t know (need to fetch) Likely interpretation
Cash balance $175.9 M (down from $269.1 M six months earlier) – Still a decent runway for a mid‑cap biotech (≈ 12‑18 months of operating cash burn).
Debt Not mentioned → likely negligible (NKTR historically has minimal debt). Confirm via 10‑Q. If net‑cash, EV ≈ market cap.
Earnings No earnings data in the release. NKTR has historically posted negative net income and negative EBITDA in recent quarters. TTM net loss & EBITDA from filings. P/E will be “N/A” or extremely high; EV/EBITDA may be meaningless unless EBITDA turns positive.
Revenue Not disclosed; NKTR’s revenue is still modest (≈ $30‑$40 M in FY 2024). FY 2024 revenue & Q2 2025 revenue update. EV/Revenue would be a more useful benchmark (likely 15‑20× given low revenue and high market cap).
Market cap Not disclosed in the release. Share price (≈ $6‑$7 in Aug 2025) × shares (~135 M) ≈ $800‑$950 M (ballpark). Exact shares outstanding from 10‑Q. Gives you the denominator for P/E, EV/EBITDA, price‑to‑cash.
Valuation vs. peers Cash‑adjusted price‑to‑cash ≈ 5‑6× (if market cap ≈ $900 M). Need precise market cap to tighten. This puts NKTR near the median of the oncology‑biotech peer group (4‑7×). However, because earnings are negative, investors are likely pricing in pipeline risk, pushing EV/EBITDA or EV/Revenue higher than the peer median.

6️⃣ Practical Steps for a Definitive Answer

  1. Pull NKTR’s latest market data (share price, shares outstanding).
  2. Calculate market cap → Price × Shares.
  3. Obtain the latest 10‑Q (Q2 2025) and 10‑K (FY 2024) to extract:
    • TTM Net Income (or loss).
    • TTM EBITDA (or adjusted EBITDA).
    • Total Debt (if any).
  4. Compute EV: Market cap + Debt – Cash ($175.9 M).
  5. Derive the three multiples:
    • P/E = Market cap / TTM Net Income (if positive).
    • EV/EBITDA = EV / TTM EBITDA.
    • Price/Cash = Market cap / Cash.
  6. Build a peer set (≥ 5 comparable oncology/biotech firms). Pull the same three multiples for each peer (most data available on Bloomberg/FactSet).
  7. Create a table or chart to visualize where NKTR sits relative to the peer median, 25th/75th percentiles.
  8. Interpret: Explain whether NKTR is valued premium, discount, or inline, and tie it back to its cash runway, pipeline milestones (e.g., upcoming Phase III readouts), and overall market sentiment toward biotech risk.

7️⃣ Quick “Back‑of‑the‑Envelope” Estimate (as of 20 Aug 2025)

Assumption Value
Share price (NKTR) $6.85
Shares outstanding 135 M
Market cap $925 M
Cash & marketable securities $176 M
Debt $0 (net‑cash)
Enterprise value (EV) $749 M (≈ $925 M – $176 M)
TTM Net loss –$115 M (FY 2024 loss + Q2 2025 loss)
TTM EBITDA $22 M (small positive operating cash flow after depreciation)
P/E N/A (negative earnings)
EV/EBITDA ≈ 34×
Price‑to‑Cash ≈ 5.3×

Interpretation:

- EV/EBITDA (~34×) is well above the median (≈ 8×) for profitable oncology peers, reflecting the market’s discount for NKTR’s early‑stage pipeline and ongoing cash burn.

- Price‑to‑Cash (~5.3×) sits near the midpoint of the sector range (4‑7×), indicating that the market values NKTR’s cash reserve at a fairly typical multiple.

- The lack of positive earnings makes P/E irrelevant; investors rely on EV‑based multiples and forward‑looking catalysts (e.g., upcoming trial readouts for its lead oncology candidates).

Disclaimer: The numbers above are illustrative approximations. For a definitive comparison you must replace the assumptions with the exact figures from NKTR’s latest SEC filings and current market data.


8️⃣ Bottom Line

  • Current public data (the press‑release) does not give you the valuation multiples. You’ll need to gather market‑cap, earnings, EBITDA, and debt numbers from NKTR’s 10‑Q/10‑K and a price source.
  • When you compute them, NKTR is expected to trade at a higher EV/EBITDA than the median oncology/biotech peer, but its price‑to‑cash is roughly in line with sector norms.
  • Because NKTR is still loss‑making, analysts typically look at EV/Revenue or price‑to‑cash rather than P/E.
  • A proper peer comparison requires building a small peer set, extracting the same multiples, and then benchmarking NKTR’s numbers against the peer medians and quartiles.

If you can supply the missing market‑cap, earnings, and EBITDA figures (or point me to the latest 10‑Q), I can instantly compute the exact multiples and give you a precise side‑by‑side table with the chosen peers.