Comparison of the new outlook with prior guidance and consensus forecasts
The 2025 outlook that NKT just released is markedly more optimistic than the guidance it issued in its last update (mid‑2023) and also sits above the Street’s consensus expectations that had been tracking a modest‑growth scenario. In the previous guidance, NKT projected FY‑2025 revenue of roughly DKK 1.1 bn with an EBITDA margin of 7‑8 %. The consensus broker poll, compiled in early 2024, was pricing the same revenue at DKK 1.05 bn and EBITDA at 7 %, reflecting a slight downgrade after the company’s 2022‑2023 earnings short‑fall. By contrast, the refreshed outlook now targets FY‑2025 revenue of DKK 1.3 bn and an EBITDA margin of 9‑10 %, implying a 15‑20 % upside versus the consensus view and a 20 % lift from the company’s own prior guidance.
Trading implications
The upgrade signals that management sees stronger demand in its core fiber‑optic and renewable‑energy infrastructure segments, as well as cost‑efficiency gains from the 2024‑2025 CAPEX cycle. On the technical side, NKT’s shares have been trading in a tight 10‑day range around DKK 115, with the 20‑day SMA still below the 50‑day SMA, indicating a latent bullish bias. The positive sentiment (sentiment score 10) and the surprise‑up in fundamentals should catalyze a short‑run rally, especially if the price pulls back to the 20‑day SMA (≈DKK 112‑113).
Actionable take‑away – With the outlook now well ahead of consensus, the risk‑reward profile favours a long position on any pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA, targeting a breakout above the recent high of DKK 120. Tight stop‑losses around DKK 108 (just below the 20‑day SMA) would protect against a potential re‑revision if the upgrade is re‑absorbed by the market. If the price holds above DKK 120, consider scaling in and trailing stops to lock in gains as the market re‑prices the higher earnings expectations.