Fundamentals & Consensus Gap
NIO posted Q2‑2025 revenue of RMB 19.01 bn (≈ US$2.65 bn). Bloomberg/FactSet consensus for the quarter had been hovering around RMB 18.5 bn (± 2‑3 %), implying the results are roughly 2–3 % above expectations. The beat is modest but meaningful because NIO’s top‑line growth has been a key driver of its recent valuation lifts. The surplus over forecasts reinforces the credibility of the company’s delivery ramp (72,056 units, up ~15 % YoY) and suggests pricing power remains intact despite a softening EV market in China.
Market & Technical Implications
The outperformance triggered an immediate ~4–5 % rally in NIO shares, breaking the descending‑channel resistance around the 17‑day EMA. Volume spiked to 2‑3× the 30‑day average, confirming bullish conviction. However, the stock is now approaching its short‑term overbought zone (RSI ~78) and the upper band of the Bollinger range, so a partial profit‑taking pullback to the 20‑day moving average (~$9.35) could present a higher‑probability entry for traders looking to ride the upside toward the next resistance near $10.20 (the prior swing high).
Actionable Take‑away
- Long bias: Keep a core position if you’re bullish on NIO’s delivery momentum and the broader Chinese EV recovery; the revenue beat adds a catalyst for medium‑term upside.
- Short‑term trade: Consider a buy‑the‑dip if the price retests the 20‑day MA with supportive volume, targeting the $10.20 resistance. Set a stop just below the 20‑day MA (~$9.30) to guard against a reversal if the market digests broader macro concerns.
Overall, the revenue beat validates NIO’s growth narrative and offers a short‑term buying opportunity, but the trade should be managed tightly given the stock’s current overbought technical profile.