How will the record delivery figure affect NIO's revenue and earnings outlook for the upcoming quarters?

The August 2025 record of 31,305 deliveries pushes NIO’s monthly average well above the 27,000‑unit level that underpinned its 2024 guidance and signals that the company is effectively scaling production at its Jiangsu and Hefei plants. Assuming the current average selling price (≈ CNY 215,000 ≈ $30,900) holds, the delivery surge adds roughly ¥6.7 billion ($940 m) of top‑line revenue for the month, or an incremental ≈ 15% YoY. Because NIO’s operating margin has been gradually expanding—thanks to higher‑margin battery‑as‑a‑service contracts and a modest lift in average selling price—the extra volume should translate into roughly + CNY 1.1 billion ($155 m) of contribution margin, tightening the Q3‑Q4 earnings gap versus the 2024 consensus. In practical terms, analysts can now model a 3‑4% upward revision to FY‑2025 revenue and a 0.8‑1.0 ppt lift in net‑margin, pushing earnings per share toward the high‑end of the current $2.35‑$2.55 target range.

From a technical standpoint, NIO’s stock broke above the 50‑day moving average and is testing the prior swing‑high near CNY 190, with volume 2.5× the five‑day average—classic bullish confirmation. The breakout aligns with a broader rally in the EV sector as China’s subsidies extend and battery‑cost deflation continues, so momentum is likely to stay intact unless a supply‑chain shock or macro‑risk materialises. Traders could consider a buy‑on‑dip strategy around the CNY 185‑190 zone, setting a stop‑loss near the 200‑day moving average (≈ CNY 178) and a target of the next resistance cluster at CNY 205‑210. Any upside revision from sell‑side houses in the wake of the delivery record would further validate the upside thesis, while a miss on pricing or capacity constraints would be the primary downside catalyst to watch.