What risks or uncertainties are associated with the preliminary nature of these results and how should they be factored into a trading strategy?

Risks & uncertainties tied to the “pre‑liminary” nature of the results

1. Potential restatement – Because the figures are unaudited, any material error (e.g., mis‑classified revenue, un‑recorded impairments, or an unexpected swing in freight‑rate exposure) could be corrected when the final statements are filed. A restatement can move the share price sharply in either direction, especially if the revision widens the gap between consensus expectations and the actual result.
   
2. Incomplete disclosure – Preliminary releases often omit foot‑notes, segment breakdowns, or forward‑looking commentary (e.g., vessel‑fleet utilization, LNG‑market hedges). The missing information creates “information risk” that can be resolved only after the full earnings call or the audited filing, leaving the market exposed to surprise on margins, cash‑flow, or exposure to volatile gas‑price spreads.
   
3. Regulatory & accounting timing – The audit timeline can be stretched by external factors (e.g., cross‑border tax reviews, changes in IFRS/GAAP treatment of long‑term charter contracts). Delays or adjustments in accounting policy can change key ratios such as EBITDA‑adjusted, leverage, or net‑cash, which are core to Navigator Gas’s valuation.

How to embed these risks into a trading plan

• Position sizing & stop‑loss discipline – Treat the preliminary release as a “high‑volatility trigger.” If you go long, cap exposure at 2‑3 % of capital and set a tight stop (5‑7 % below entry) to protect against a sudden negative restatement. Conversely, a short position should be similarly modest, with a stop just above the current price to avoid being squeezed if the final results turn out better than expected.
  
• Technical confirmation – Look for price‑action cues that the market is already pricing in the preliminary data (e.g., a breakout of the 20‑day SMA with strong volume). If the breakout is weak or the price is still hovering near a key resistance (e.g., the prior high of $12.00), it suggests the market is awaiting the audited numbers—an ideal point to hold a “wait‑and‑see” stance or a small directional bias.
  
• Fundamental overlay – Compare the preliminary EBITDA, cash‑flow, and fleet‑utilization metrics against the consensus consensus. If the preliminary numbers are already above consensus, the upside is capped and the primary risk becomes a downward revision; a short‑biased trade with a modest profit target may be justified. If the numbers are below consensus, the upside is still open, but you should demand a “confirmation” catalyst (e.g., a management commentary or a forward‑contract update) before scaling in.
  

Actionable take‑away:

Enter the trade with a small, risk‑controlled position only after you have cross‑checked the preliminary figures against analyst expectations and confirmed that the technical environment (trend, volume, key moving averages) supports the direction you intend to take. Keep the position tight, monitor the upcoming earnings call and the audited filing date, and be ready to exit or flip the position immediately if the final results materially diverge from the preliminary release.