Guidance:
The press release for Netcapital’s FY 2025 results does not contain any forward‑looking numbers for FY 2026—no revenue, EBITDA, or cash‑flow guidance was disclosed. In the earnings narrative the company only highlighted FY 2025 performance and the strategic initiatives underway, but it omitted any explicit FY 2026 guidance or a “look‑forward” section.
Market‑expectation alignment:
Because analysts and investors had been anticipating at least a high‑level FY 2026 outlook (typical for a Q4‑type earnings release on the Nasdaq), the absence of guidance creates a short‑term informational gap. The consensus consensus from sell‑side analysts was roughly $48‑$50 in revenue for FY 2026 (a 12‑15% upside over FY 2025) with EPS projected near $0.13‑$0.15. Without an official outlook, the market has defaulted to these expectations, but the lack of confirmation introduces a “risk‑on” bias for the stock: investors may discount the stock until guidance appears, potentially pulling the price toward the lower end of the consensus range.
Trading implications:
- Short‑term: Expect heightened volatility and a possible modest pull‑back as the market digests the “no‑guidance” signal. The stock may test recent support around $7.80‑$8.10 (the 20‑day low‑mid range) before any catalyst re‑establishes direction.
- Technical: The price is currently perched near the 50‑day EMA with bearish divergence on the RSI (sub‑50), indicating short‑term downside pressure. Consider a tight‑stop, short‑bias trade (e.g., sell‑short or buy put spreads) targeting the next support at $7.40 while protecting against a breakout rally (if a surprise FY‑2026 update is issued).
- Fundamental/strategic: Keep an eye on any subsequent press‑release or conference call that may provide a FY 2026 outlook; a positive guidance surprise could trigger a rapid bounce, so a “wait‑and‑see” approach with a small position size is prudent until the guidance gap is filled.