What is the likely timing and price range of the shares to be sold under the ATM agreement, and how might that impact NA's liquidity and volatility?

Likely timing and price range

An ATM (At‑the‑Market) facility is typically used to raise capital incrementally rather than in a single lump‑sum. Given the $45 million ceiling and the fact that Nano Labs just opened the agreement, we can expect the first tranche to be executed within the next 4‑8 weeks, with subsequent tranches spaced out over the next 3‑6 months depending on market depth and the company’s cash‑needs. ATM sales are priced at the prevailing market price or at a modest discount (usually 2‑5 %). At the time of the announcement NA was trading around $9.80‑$10.20 per Class A share, so the likely execution window will be roughly $9.30‑$9.90 per share, tightening as the offering size is consumed and market demand clarifies.

Liquidity and volatility impact

Adding up to $45 million of shares (≈ 4.5‑4.6 million shares at a $10 price) will increase NA’s free‑float by 10‑15 %, markedly improving daily trading volume and tightening bid‑ask spreads. In the short run, the market will price in the dilution risk; if the sales are front‑loaded, a modest downward pressure of 1‑2 % can be expected as supply hits the order books. However, the enhanced liquidity should reduce intraday price spikes and make the stock less prone to abrupt moves, which could actually lower overall volatility once the initial “overhang” is absorbed. Traders should watch for a gradual price drift toward the lower end of the $9.30‑$9.90 band in the first 2‑4 weeks, then reassess. A practical approach is to look for pull‑backs to the $9.40‑$9.50 support area for long entries, while keeping a short‑term stop near $9.20 in case the ATM tranche hits the market in a concentrated burst.