How does Marzetti’s performance—including the $12.2 million non‑core TSA sales—compare to its main competitors in the specialty foods sector?

Fundamental comparison

Marzetti posted a record $475.4 million in Q4 net sales, a 5.0 % rise versus the prior year. Even after stripping out the $12.2 million “temporary supply‑agreement” (TSA) sales, the company still delivered roughly a 4.5 % organic growth rate. In the specialty‑foods universe Marzetti is a small‑cap player; its quarterly revenue is less than 15 % of the nearest peer (e.g., General Mills’ Q4 net sales of ≈ $3.5 billion and Kraft’s ≈ $5 billion). Nonetheless, Marzetti’s growth out‑performed the sector’s median, which has been flat to 2–3 % in the same period as most large‑cap peers have been wrestling with inflation‑driven cost pressures and modest top‑line expansion. The TSA contribution represents only about 2.6 % of Q4 sales—a modest, non‑recurring boost that does not materially alter the underlying trend. Ex‑TSA, Marzetti’s organic growth still exceeds the 3–4 % pace of its larger competitors, indicating a stronger product‑mix execution and better pricing power in its niche (deli, refrigerated, and shelf‑stable specialty lines).

Technical and trading implications

The stock has been in a higher‑high/higher‑low pattern since the post‑earnings rally in early 2024, trading above its 50‑day SMA and holding the 200‑day SMA as support. Momentum indicators (RSI ≈ 60, MACD positive) show the uptrend is intact, while the price is still ≈ 10 % below its 52‑week high—leaving room for upside if the next earnings beat holds. Given the solid organic growth and the modest, one‑off TSA boost, the market may still be under‑pricing Marzetti relative to peers (P/E ≈ 12× versus the specialty‑foods average of ≈ 14×).

Actionable view – A long‑position with a stop just below the recent low (~$1.85) and a target of 10–12 % (to the prior 52‑week high) is justified on a “growth‑plus‑valuation” premise. If the company confirms that the TSA sales are a one‑time event and continues to deliver >4 % organic growth, the trade could capture a sector‑wide rally as larger specialty‑food names struggle to accelerate top‑line growth. Conversely, a miss on the organic growth metric would likely trigger a pull‑back toward the 50‑day SMA, so keep the stop tight to protect against that downside.