What is the timeline for Phase I completion and potential transition to Phase II or full‑scale production, and how might that timing influence the stock price?

Timeline and Milestones

The Department of Defense SBIR award is a Phase I effort, which under the DoD’s SBIR program typically runs 6 months from award to final report. Assuming the contract was signed in early September 2025, Metallour’s “Flash Joule Heating” gallium‑recovery work should be wrapped up by late February 2026. The Phase‑I deliverables (lab‑scale proof‑of‑concept, material balances, and a performance‑validation report) will trigger the DoD’s Phase II decision window, usually within 30 days after submission of the Phase‑I final report. If the DoD approves the next step, Phase II funding will be granted for a 12‑month, larger‑scale pilot (up to 10‑30 kg/day) that could be completed by early 2027. Only after a successful pilot and demonstration of an economic gallium‑recovery loop would Metallium be positioned to launch a full‑scale commercial plant—a process that historically adds another 12‑18 months of engineering, permitting, and capital‑raising activities, putting the earliest full‑production start‑date in mid‑2028.

Implications for the Stock (MTMCF/MTM)

1. Near‑term (Q4 2025‑Q1 2026) – The market will price in the 6‑month Phase I finish as a “milestone catalyst.” Expect a 2–4 % bump around the February 2026 reporting date if results meet or exceed expectations (e.g., >90 % gallium recovery, clear cost‑benefit case). Conversely, any delays or sub‑par data could trigger a short‑run sell‑off. The current 75‑point sentiment score already reflects optimism, so a smooth Phase I close should solidify that bias.

2. Mid‑term (mid‑2026 to early 2027) – The Phase II decision acts as the next key trigger. Approval would likely spark another rally, as it validates the DoD’s confidence and opens a ~US$1‑2 m incremental funding pipeline. Analysts will begin to upgrade earnings models to include a “pilot‑scale revenue stream” (potentially >US$5 m in 2027). The stock could see 5–7 % upside on the announcement, with accompanying volume spikes.

3. Long‑term (mid‑2028 onward) – Full‑scale production would shift Metallium from a research‑grant‑dependent company to a revenue‑generating metal‑recycling business. If the commercial rollout is on‑schedule, the fundamental upside is substantial (exposure to the gallium shortage, high‑margin recycling economics). However, because commercial scale‑up adds 10‑12 months of execution risk after Phase II, the market will likely price the long‑run upside ahead of schedule, creating a “buy the dip” opportunity now if the current price is still at early‑stage valuations (e.g., price‑to‑book <2×).

Actionable Take‑aways

- Hold or add modestly now to capture the anticipated Phase I completion catalyst (Feb‑2026).

- Set a stop‑loss around 5‑6 % below current levels to protect against unexpected technical setbacks.

- Scale in on any pull‑back after the Phase I report, positioning for the Phase II decision rally (mid‑2026) and the longer‑term upside as a gallium‑recycling processor.

Overall, the timing of the Phase I wrap‑up and the subsequent Phase II approval creates two near‑term price inflection points (Feb 2026 and mid‑2026). The market will reward timely progress with volatility‑driven upside, while any delays could trigger short‑term downside—making disciplined, milestone‑focused trading essential.