What is the outlook for metal price trends and how might they impact Metalla’s earnings going forward?

Metal‑price outlook

Global metal markets are still in a modest‑to‑bullish phase. 2025‑24 has seen a tight‑supply, strong‑demand narrative across most of Metalla’s royalty/streaming assets—copper and lithium are being buoyed by the EV‑charging and battery‑supply chain build‑out, while gold and silver have held firm on the “inflation‑hedge” side. On the technical chart, the key base‑metal indices (e.g., LME Copper, NYMEX Gold) are trading above their 20‑day moving averages and have recently broken a series of short‑term resistance levels, suggesting further upside potential through the year‑end. The macro backdrop—still‑elevated real‑interest‑rate spreads, a resilient Chinese industrial stimulus, and constrained mine‑output in South America—means price volatility is likely to stay moderate, not erratic.

Implications for Metalla’s earnings

Metalla’s royalty and streaming model is directly proportional to the spot price of the underlying metals. The current upward price trajectory therefore should translate into a higher per‑ounce royalty catch‑up and a more valuable streaming “up‑front” cash‑flow as its partners tap the market at premium levels. The Q2 2025 results already flagged a double‑digit YoY uplift in royalty income, and with the same price‑trend persisting, earnings are positioned to keep rising at a similar clip. However, the upside is capped by the company’s exposure ceiling (e.g., royalty caps on certain mines) and by the potential for a mid‑year slowdown in demand if China’s stimulus wanes or if a major supply‑side shock (e.g., mine strikes) occurs.

Trading take‑away

• Long‑biased: If you are already long Metalla, the current metal‑price backdrop justifies holding and potentially adding on pull‑backs near the 20‑day EMA (≈ US$0.85‑0.90).
  
• Risk management: Set a stop just below the 50‑day moving average of the TSX‑MTA ticker (≈ US$0.78) to guard against a sudden demand contraction.
  
• Watchlist: Monitor copper, gold and lithium price moves; a breach of the next resistance on any of these (e.g., copper > US$9,000/mt) can act as a catalyst for a +5‑10 % move in Metalla’s share price.
  

In short, the prevailing metal‑price environment is bullish for Metalla’s royalty and streaming earnings, and the stock is positioned for incremental upside with limited downside if the price trend holds.