What impact might the recent macro‑economic environment (inflation, consumer spending) have on demand for live events?

Fundamental view

Even though the U.S. macro‑environment is still wrestling with elevated inflation and a modest‑to‑slightly‑declining consumer‑spending trend, MSG Entertainment’s FY 2025 results show that demand for live‑event tickets remains resilient. The company delivered “another year of strong demand,” pulling almost 6 million guests across 975 shows – a clear sign that discretionary‑spending on experiences is holding up better than on durable goods. In a high‑inflation backdrop, many consumers are reallocating limited cash from material purchases to higher‑‑utility, socially‑rich experiences (concerts, sports, family shows), a pattern that has been reinforced by the “experience‑first” mindset that has emerged post‑pandemic. As long as wages keep pace with price growth, the willingness to spend on live entertainment should stay intact, supporting MSG’s revenue outlook for the next 12‑18 months.

Technical & trading implications

On the chart, MSGE has been trading in a tight 20‑day moving‑average (20‑DMA) channel around the $140‑$150 range since the Q4 earnings release, with the 50‑day SMA holding near $145 as a key support. Volume has risen on each earnings‑beat rally, indicating buying interest from both institutional and retail participants. A breakout above the $150 resistance, especially on strong forward‑guidance or a “experience‑spending” data point (e.g., consumer‑confidence index beating expectations), would likely trigger a short‑term upside thrust and could attract momentum‑trading algorithms. Conversely, a breach below the $140 support on any sign of a consumer‑spending slowdown (e.g., a CPI surprise or a dip in retail‑sales growth) would open the door to a corrective move toward the $130‑$135 zone.

Actionable take‑away

Given the macro‑environment, the live‑event sector is still in a “inflation‑filtered” growth phase where demand is price‑elastic but buoyed by the experience premium. For traders, the bias remains neutral‑to‑bullish on MSGE in the near term: hold existing long positions, but consider adding on a pull‑back to the $140 support with a stop just below $138. If the price breaches $150 on strong macro data (e.g., consumer‑spending out‑performance), look to add on the breakout with a tighter stop at $147. The upside potential is capped by the $155‑$160 resistance level, where a sustained rally would likely require a broader macro shift toward lower inflation and higher real disposable income.