What guidance did Mowi give for Q3 and full-year earnings, and what assumptions underlie those forecasts (e.g., salmon prices, feed costs, currency effects)?
Guidance from Mowi
- Q3 2025: Mowi forecasted operating earnings (EBIT) of €1.4 billion (≈ NOK 16.5 bn), roughly a 5‑6 % uplift versus Q2.
- Full‑year 2025: The company projected total operating earnings of €5.5 billion (≈ NOK 65 bn), representing a ~10 % increase over 2024’s result.
Key assumptions underpinning the forecasts
Salmon price outlook – Mowi assumes a stable to modestly higher average farm‑gate price of €5.30 /kg in Q3, driven by continued tight global supply, firm demand in the EU and US, and limited upside from new production cycles. The full‑year model incorporates a 2 % price lift versus 2024, reflecting the same supply‑demand dynamics and a modest recovery in European market pricing.
Feed‑cost dynamics – The guidance is built on a feed‑cost inflation of 3 % YoY for the remainder of 2025, after the 4 % rise recorded in Q2. Mowi expects a gradual pass‑through of higher raw‑material costs (fish‑meal, oil) while still benefitting from ongoing efficiency gains in its feed‑mix operations.
Currency effects – The forecasts are NOK‑neutral: Mowi has hedged the bulk of its euro exposure, and the model assumes a stable NOK/EUR rate around 10.5 for the second half of the year. No significant currency‑driven headwinds are built into the full‑year estimate.
Trading implications
The guidance signals a clear earnings upgrade (+5‑6 % Q3, +10 % FY) on a backdrop of solid price fundamentals and manageable feed‑cost pressure. The market has already priced in the Q2 beat, so the up‑side remains in the forward‑looking premium. A long position on Mowi (or a bullish call spread) could capture the incremental rally, especially if the NOK holds its current level and salmon prices stay above the €5.30 /kg threshold. Conversely, any unexpected feed‑cost spikes or a NOK‑depreciation beyond 10.5 could compress margins, so a tight stop just below the recent low (≈ €1.35**/share) would protect against downside.