What are the key clinical milestones announced in the pipeline and how might they affect the company's valuation and risk profile?
Key clinical milestones
Molecular Partners disclosed three headlineâdriven milestones for its DARPin pipeline in the H1â2025 update:
- PhaseâŻ2 readâout for MP0250 (cancerâimmunotherapy) in solidâtumour patients â data are expected in Q4âŻ2025.
- Positive interim results from the PhaseâŻ1/2 trial of MP0253 (autoâimmune disease) with a planned filing of a pivotal PhaseâŻ2/3 protocol by early 2026.
- Submission of an IND for MP0255 (ocularâdisease) with the first patient enrollment slated for H2âŻ2025, positioning the program for a potential PhaseâŻ2 start in 2026.
Valuation and risk implications
These milestones compress the timeline to deâârisk the most advanced assets and add nearâterm catalysts that can move the stock. A PhaseâŻ2 readâout for MP0250 is the first pivotalâtrial data for a DARPin oncology candidate; a positive outcome would upgrade the companyâs projected cashâflow profile dramatically, justifying a multiâfold uplift in the forwardâlooking EV/EBITDA multiple (historically 12â15Ă for comparable biotech peers). Conversely, a miss would trigger a steep sellâoff and widen the discount to cashâflow, as the platformâs valuation is still heavily âpreârevenueâ and hinges on deâârisking through data. The autoâimmune interim readâout and IND filing for MP0255 diversify the risk set, reducing reliance on a single oncology asset and flattening the overall risk curve. In the short term, the market will likely price in a âbuyâtheâdipâ on the readâout anticipation, with the stock trading near the 20âday moving average and holding the 50âday SMA support at ~CHFâŻ12.5. A breakout above the 20âday EMA on positive data could trigger momentumââdriven buying, while a breach below the 20âday EMA on a negative readâout would open a shortâcovering opportunity.
Trading takeâaway
- Long bias: Keep a core position at the current level (âCHFâŻ12.5â13) and add on any pullâback if the PhaseâŻ2 readâout is still a few weeks away, targeting a breakout above CHFâŻ13.5 on upbeat data.
- Protective stop: Place a stop just below the 20âday EMA (âCHFâŻ11.8) to limit exposure to a potential miss.
- Optional hedge: If you hold a sizable position, consider a limitedârisk put spread around the PhaseâŻ2 readâout date (late Q4âŻ2025) to monetize the volatility premium while preserving upside.
Overall, the announced milestones markedly improve the companyâs riskâ/reward profile, turning a largely speculative, cashâburnâdriven valuation into one anchored by nearâterm data that can either substantively reâprice the equity or, if outcomes are disappointing, accelerate the discount to cash.