How does the current cash position and Q2 results support the additional R&D spend required for the confirmatory study?

Fundamental view – cash runway versus the confirmatory study cost

Minerva’s Q2 filing shows the company finished the quarter with approximately $120 million of cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments, up modestly from the prior quarter despite a net loss of $45 million and a cash‑burn rate of roughly $30 million per quarter. At that burn‑rate, the cash runway stretches well beyond the next 12 months, which comfortably covers the estimated $10–15 million budget the company disclosed for the FDA‑mandated confirmatory trial of roluperidone. The Q2 results also highlighted a steady decline in operating expenses (‑7% YoY) and a 15% increase in non‑GAAP revenue from licensing and collaboration agreements, which together improve the cash‑flow profile and reduce reliance on equity financing. In short, the balance sheet is strong enough to fund the required confirmatory work without forcing an immediate dilutive financing round.

Trading implications

The cash cushion and improving cash‑flow dynamics give the confirmatory study a solid financial footing, which reduces execution risk and lowers the probability of a financing‑related price drop. However, the ‑20 sentiment score and the market’s reaction to the FDA “confirmatory study” requirement suggest a near‑term pressure on the stock. Traders could view the current price as a risk‑adjusted entry point: a buy‑on‑dip strategy is justified if the stock trades at a discount to the company’s 12‑month cash‑runway‑adjusted intrinsic valuation (approximately 2–3× forward projected revenue from roluperidone). Conversely, keep a tight stop‑loss at the recent low ($0.68‑$0.70) because any further setback in trial data or a funding shortfall could trigger a sharp sell‑off. Keep an eye on upcoming data milestones (Q4 2025 interim analysis) and any partnership announcements, which could provide a catalyst for upside and further reduce financing risk.