What are the expected timelines for data readout from the COMBAT‑ALS trial and how might that influence the share price volatility?

Expected read‑out window – MediciNova announced on 26 Aug 2025 that it has hit its enrollment target for the COMBAT‑ALS Phase 2b/3 study of MN‑166. In ALS trials the primary efficacy read‑out is typically collected 12‑18 months after the last patient is dosed. Assuming dose administration begins within the next 4‑6 weeks, the most realistic window for the first topline data is Q1‑Q2 2026, with a possible interim safety/biomarker update in late 2025 (Nov‑Dec) if the sponsor chooses an early read‑out to sustain market interest.

Impact on volatility – The market will price in a “data‑driven catalyst” effect: as the 2026 window narrows, implied volatility on MNOV options is likely to climb, especially on the front‑month series. In the short term (next 4‑8 weeks) we can expect a baseline volatility uptick as investors position for a potential early safety update; any modest positive signal could trigger a rapid 15‑30 % rally, while a neutral or negative safety note may spark a sell‑off of similar magnitude. Technically, MNOV is currently respecting a rising‑trend channel (support around $2.55, resistance near $3.95) with volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) holding above $3.20. A prudent play is to buy on dips near support ahead of the anticipated read‑out and consider a long‑call or call‑spread with expiration in March‑April 2026 to capture upside while limiting downside risk. Conversely, if you prefer a neutral stance, a short‑straddle (or strangle) around the expected data release dates can monetize the expected spike in implied volatility, provided you are comfortable with the unlimited risk on the short‑call side. Monitoring FDA‑related news, any partnership announcements, and the company’s upcoming investor call (likely in early December 2025) will be critical for timing entry/exit.