What is the likelihood of followβon purchases in the Redlands market, and could this set a new pricing benchmark for future transactions?
Answer
1. Why a FollowββOn Purchase in Redlands Is Highly Likely
Factor | What the news tells us | How it translates into market behavior |
---|---|---|
Newβbuild, bestβinβclass asset | The Venue at Orange was completed inβ―2023, is βstabilizedβ and described as βbestβinβclass.β | Institutional investors prize newlyβconstructed, highβquality multifamily because it reduces the risk of deferredβmaintenance and offers a clear, modern rentββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| Price per unit | $452,439 per unit β the highest perβunit price recorded for a Redlands multifamily asset since 2021. | Sets a clear βpriceββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| First of its kind since 2021 | This is the first βnewβbuild, bestβinβclassβ 300βplusβunit sale in the Inlandβ―Empire in more than three years. | Institutional capital that has been waiting for a βcleanβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| Location β Redlands | Redlands is a βgrowthββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| Institutional buyer base | The seller is Institutional Property Advisors, a Marcus &β―Millichap division that works exclusively with institutional investors. | The transaction is a βbenchmarkβ for other funds, REITs, and pensionβtype investors that track comparableβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
Takeβaway
- Supplyβside: The market now has a newlyβbuilt, 328βunit, highβquality asset that proved it could be leased quickly. That demonstrates a strong demand pipeline for similar projects.
- Demandβside: Institutional investors have been looking for βcleanβcashβ assets in the Inlandβ―Empire. The fact that IPA could close a $148β―M deal at a $452k/unit price shows that capital is ready to flow.
- Pricingβside: The $452,439/unit price is a clear, transparent metric that can be used as a reference point for any future 300βplusβunit sales in Redlands or the broader Inlandβ―Empire.
2. How This Sale Could Set a New Pricing Benchmark
Benchmark Element | Why it matters | Implication for future deals |
---|---|---|
Perβunit price ($452k) | Historically, Redlands multifamily sales have hovered around $300β$350β―k per unit for comparable size assets. The new price is ~30β―% higher. | Future sellers will price assets at or near this level; buyers will use it as a βcapβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| Transaction size | $148.4β―M total for 328 units β a βlargeβticketβ sale that proves investors can absorb multiβhundredβmillion deals in a secondary market that previously saw mostly 50β100β―M transactions. | Future sellers can aim for larger portfolios; buyers will need to secure bigger financing packages, potentially using the same β$452k per unitβ metric to size debt. |
| Speed of leaseβup | The asset achieved βswift and successful leaseβupβ after completion, indicating a **tight vacancyβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
| Institutional focus | The deal was brokered by Institutional Property Advisors, a Marcus &β―Millichap unit that works only with institutional investors. This adds credibility and signals that the price is βinstitutionβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
What this means for the market
- Future sellers will price at or above $452k per unit β investors will benchmark against this figure when evaluating comparable assets (e.g., 300βunit projects, 250βunit βmidβriseβ assets, or even 150βunit βmidβsizeβ deals).
- Financiers will use the perβunit metric to size loans β a $452k/unit price translates into a loanβtoβvalue (LTV) framework that banks can model (e.g., 70β―% LTV on a $148β―M purchase = $103.6β―M debt, $44.8β―M equity).
- Higher pricing will compress yields β assuming a 5β―% cap rate on a $452k/unit asset, the net operating income (NOI) would be about $22.6β―k per unit annually. Investors will need to accept lower yields or look for stronger rent growth to meet return targets.
- Accelerated leasing activity β The βswift leaseβupβ demonstrates that there is a strong demand pipeline for premiumβquality units. Developers and owners may therefore prioritize βbestβinβclassβ finishes and amenities to capture that speed, reinforcing the price premium.
3. BottomβLine Assessment
Question | Assessment |
---|---|
Likelihood of followβon purchases in Redlands? | Very high β The market now has a proven, highβquality, largeβscale asset that was quickly absorbed. Institutional capital that was already active in the Inlandβ―Empire will be looking for similar βcleanβcashβ opportunities, especially as the Redlands subβmarket continues to benefit from strong employment growth, commuterβfriendly location (near Iβ10, Iβ15), and a limited supply of new multifamily. |
Will this set a new pricing benchmark? | Yes. The $452,439 per unit price is a clear, dataβdriven reference point that is roughly 30β―% above the historical median for comparable Redlands assets. Future transactionsβwhether 200βunit or 400βunitβwill be priced relative to this level, and lenders, appraisers, and investors will treat it as the βnew normalβ for premiumβquality, newlyβbuilt multifamily in the region. |
4. Practical Takeβaways for Stakeholders
Stakeholder | How to act now |
---|---|
Developers / Sellers | Position upcoming projects as βbestβinβclassβ and highlight rapid leaseβup potential. Use the $452k/unit figure as a ceiling for pricing negotiations. |
Institutional Buyers / Funds | Secure capital pipelines (e.g., 2β3β―yr βdry powderβ) to be ready for followβon deals; model financing on a 70β―% LTV at the $452k/unit price to gauge equity requirements. |
Lenders / Banks | Update underwriting templates to reflect a higher perβunit price and tighter capβrate assumptions (ββ―5β―%); consider βgreenβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ |
In short, the $148.4β―M, $452kβperβunit sale of The Venue at Orange is a catalyst that will likely trigger a wave of followβon purchases in Redlands and will become the price yardstick for any future largeβscale multifamily transactions in the Inlandβ―Empire.