How might the full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares impact the stock’s price and trading volume in the short term? | MLYS (Sep 04, 2025) | Candlesense

How might the full exercise of the underwriters’ option to purchase additional shares impact the stock’s price and trading volume in the short term?

The full exercise of the underwriters’ option adds roughly 1.47 million newly‑issued shares to the market (≈ 12 % of the 11.27 M‑share base offering). In the short‑run this dilutes the float and creates a predictable supply shock, so we can expect a up‑tick in daily volume as the secondary‑market shares are distributed to institutional and retail buyers. Market participants will also rush to the desks of the underwriting syndicates to acquire the secondary‑market allocation, which usually amplifies the opening‑day turnover and can push the trading volume to 2–3× the stock’s 30‑day average (≈ 500 K shares) for the first 1‑2 sessions after the closing of the deal.

From a price‑action perspective, the immediate impact is typically down‑pressure because the extra supply widens the bid‑ask spread and forces the market‑maker to replenish inventory at a slightly lower price. The $25.50 offering price is already above recent trading levels (mid‑$24‑$24.8 range), so the market will likely reopen modestly below the deal price, often in the $24.70‑$24.90 band, as investors price‑adjust for the ~12 % dilution and for the new cash on the balance sheet. Technicals will reflect a short‑term bearish bias: moving‑average crossover on the 5‑day MA falling under the 20‑day MA, and a slight widening of the 10‑day RSI toward the 40‑45 area, indicating modest momentum loss.

Actionable take‑away: Anticipate a near‑term sell‑off on volume spikes in the next 1–2 trading days, potentially offering a breakeven‑to‑lightly‑negative entry point for short‑term traders. Long‑term holders may view the $287 MM cash infusion as a catalyst for future upside once R&D milestones hit, but the short‑term price correction will likely be confined to a 5‑10 % dip from the $25.50 offering price, making a cautious, volume‑aware approach advisable.