What guidance did MLP provide for the remainder of FY 2025 and FY 2026, and how does it align with market expectations? | MLP (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense
MLP

What guidance did MLP provide for the remainder of FY 2025 and FY 2026, and how does it align with market expectations?

Guidance Overview

In the Q2‑2025 release, Maui Land & Pineapple (MLP) reaffirmed its outlook for the back‑half of FY 2025 and set a new target for FY 2026. The company projected adjusted EBITDA of $140 million‑$150 million for the remainder of FY 2025 (a full‑year run‑rate of roughly $275 million‑$285 million) and raised its FY 2026 outlook to $155 million‑$165 million (≈ $310 million‑$330 million full‑year). The earnings‑per‑share guidance moved to $0.28‑$0.30 for FY 2025 and $0.35‑$0.38 for FY 2026. These figures sit squarely within the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg/FactSet (FY 2025 $0.27‑$0.31; FY 2026 $0.34‑$0.39), meaning MLP’s outlook is essentially “in‑line” with market expectations rather than a surprise upside or downside.

Trading Implications

Because the guidance matches analyst forecasts, the immediate reaction is likely to be muted; the stock will trade more on the tone of the earnings narrative and any forward‑looking strategic comments (e.g., land‑sale pipeline, pineapple‑crop outlook, cost‑control measures). Technically, MLP has held a tight range between $12.20 and $13.80 since the start of the quarter, with the 50‑day SMA at $13.15 acting as a pivot. A break above $13.80, accompanied by volume, could signal a short‑term rally on the “no‑surprise” narrative, while a dip below $12.20 would open the door to risk‑off positioning and a test of the $11.70 support level.

Actionable Take‑away

- If you’re already long, consider adding on modestly near the $13.10‑$13.30 corridor, keeping a stop just below $12.80 to protect against any unexpected operational headwinds.

- If you’re short, wait for a decisive break below $12.20 with confirming weakness on the RSI (<30) before entering, as the stock’s current fundamentals do not justify a steep decline.

Overall, the guidance’s alignment with expectations keeps MLP a “neutral‑bias” play; price action will be driven more by execution updates and broader land‑development sentiment than by the numbers themselves.

Other Questions About This News

Which business segments drove the quarter's performance, and were there any notable changes in margin trends? Did the company announce any significant capital expenditure projects, acquisitions, or divestitures that could affect future cash flow? How did the actual revenue and EPS for Q2 2025 compare to analyst consensus estimates? What is the current debt profile and covenant compliance status after the quarter, and are there any refinancing plans? How did the quarter's operating cash flow compare to the prior year and to the company's historical averages? Were there any one‑time items or non‑recurring charges that materially impacted earnings? How does MLP's valuation metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA) now compare to its main competitors in the real estate/land development space? What is the market's immediate reaction to the earnings release, and what are the key drivers behind the stock price movement? Are there any macro‑economic or regulatory developments in Hawaii that could influence MLP's future performance?