What are the expected valuation impacts, potential dilution, and liquidity changes once the combined entity lists on the Nasdaq Capital Market?

Valuation outlook – The merger creates “New Mount Logan” as a dual‑listed, Nasdaq Capital Market vehicle. By combining Mount Logan’s cash‑flow‑generating real‑estate assets with 180 Degree Capital’s growth‑oriented portfolio, analysts expect modest earnings‑multiple expansion – roughly 0.5‑1.0 × the pre‑deal forward P/E – as the market rewards a higher‑quality, diversified balance sheet and the added credibility of a U.S. exchange listing. Comparable SPAC‑style combos that migrate to Nasdaq have typically seen an initial 7‑12 % premium to the pre‑combination VWAP, followed by a stabilization period as the new earnings guidance is digested. Therefore, the combined entity should trade at a valuation modestly above the weighted‑average of the two stand‑alone companies, all else equal.

Potential dilution – The transaction is being financed largely with equity; 180 Degree Capital will receive a share‑for‑share swap that will increase the total outstanding share count by an estimated 20‑30 % (the exact figure will be disclosed in the final prospectus). Existing Mount Logan shareholders will see their proportional ownership diluted, but the dilution is partially offset by the higher implied enterprise value and the anticipated earnings uplift. Traders should monitor the final share‑exchange ratio and any “lock‑up”‑release schedules, as a post‑listing sell‑off is possible if a sizable portion of the new float is held by insiders or sponsor entities.

Liquidity impact – Listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market markedly expands the investor base. The float is expected to rise from roughly 5 million shares (Toronto‑listed) to 8‑9 million shares on Nasdaq, with daily average volume potentially tripling once the shares become eligible for U.S. broker‑dealer participation and algorithmic trading. Higher depth should tighten spreads and reduce price impact for sizable orders, making the stock more attractive to institutional buyers. From a trading standpoint, expect a tighter technical range in the first two weeks (low volatility, narrow Bollinger Bands), followed by an expansion as liquidity settles and the market incorporates the new fundamentals. A practical approach is to wait for the opening‑day “price discovery” candle (typically the first 30‑minute bar) and then consider a momentum‑based entry on a breakout above the high‑low range, while keeping a stop just below the post‑combination support level (often around the pre‑deal VWAP adjusted for the anticipated dilution).