What is the timeline for regulatory approvals and the completion of the merger, and what milestones should we monitor?

Timeline & Key Milestones

The strategic agreement between Millicom (Tigo) and EPM is designed to streamline the regulatory path for the pending merger with Colombia’s state‑controlled operator ColTel. In practice, the deal will move through three sequential gates:

1. Regulatory filings (Q3 2024) – Millicom, EPM and ColTel are expected to submit a joint merger dossier to the Colombian telecom regulator (CRT) and the competition authority (SIC) by the end of August. The CRT’s “no‑objection” opinion usually arrives within 30‑45 days, while the SIC’s antitrust review can take up to 90 days if no substantive objections arise.

2. Shareholder & board approvals (Q4 2024) – Assuming a clean regulatory sign‑off, the three parties will convene separate shareholder meetings in September‑October. Minutes and proxy statements are typically filed with the Superintendencia Financiera within two weeks of the vote, setting a target closing date of 30 Nov 2024.

3. Closing & integration (Q1 2025) – The final step is the execution of the share‑exchange and cash settlement, followed by the operational integration of Millicom’s Tigo assets into the ColTel/EPM platform. The parties have indicated a “hard‑closing” deadline of 15 Jan 2025 to meet fiscal‑year planning.

What to Monitor

• Regulatory bulletins from CRT and SIC (look for press releases in late August–early September). A “conditional approval” or request for additional information will push the timeline out and add downside risk.
• EPM and ColTel board minutes (usually posted on their corporate sites). Approval of the “Strategic Agreement” is the first trigger; any amendment to the share‑exchange ratio will move the stock immediately.
• Millicom shareholder proxy schedule – the notice date for the extraordinary general meeting (EGM) will be disclosed in a Form 8‑K filing. A high turnout and a clear “for” vote reduce execution risk.
• Closing condition reports – the parties must satisfy “no material adverse change” clauses and obtain clearance from any foreign‑investment watchdogs (e.g., the US‑based Committee on Foreign Investment if US capital is involved). Watch for any filings in the Federal Register or related SEC disclosures.

Trading Implications

Technically, MLC has been trading in a tight 5‑day range around $4.30–$4.45, with the 20‑day EMA at $4.38 acting as a key support. A clean regulatory path and on‑track shareholder votes should push the price above the $4.55 resistance, presenting a potential buy‑on‑breakout opportunity with a target of $5.00 (≈ 10 % upside) and a stop just below the 20‑day EMA. Conversely, any regulator‑issued conditionality or a delayed shareholder vote would likely break the support, making a short‑position or protective put spread viable. Keep position sizing modest until the first regulator decision (expected late August) confirms the deal’s trajectory.