What is the status of the company's major projects and their expected timelines for commercial operation?
Project status & commercial‑operation timeline
Minesto’s H1 2025 report confirms that all three of its flagship tidal‑energy projects are now in the “construction‑to‑commission” phase.
- Mestrel (Swedish pilot) – civil works are 95 % complete and the turbine‑grid interface is being tested. The company expects first‑of‑a‑kind commercial output by Q4 2025.
- Utsira II (Norway) – the 1.5 MW demonstrator has cleared permitting and the turbine installation is scheduled for early summer 2025, with a target commercial start‑up in Q2 2026.
- Samsø III (Denmark) – the 2 MW pre‑commercial scale plant is on‑track for turbine delivery in Q3 2025 and a full‑scale commercial run by Q4 2026.
Trading implications
The firm’s forward‑looking project milestones tighten the cash‑flow outlook and should compress the “development‑risk” discount that the market has historically applied to Minesto’s valuation. Assuming the Q4 2025 commercial debut of Mestrel proceeds on schedule, the near‑term revenue runway will expand from the current €0.5 M (H1) to an estimated €3–4 M in 2026, tightening the EV/EBITDA multiple toward the mid‑30x range—still premium, but justified by the unique, long‑term renewable‑energy franchise.
From a technical perspective, the stock has been holding the 20‑day SMA around €4.20, with the 50‑day EMA still below the 200‑day EMA, indicating a still‑nascent uptrend. A breakout above the 20‑day SMA on strong project‑update news (e.g., a successful Mestrel grid‑connection) could trigger a short‑term rally toward the next resistance at €4.80. Conversely, any delay beyond the Q4 2025 window would likely reignite the “development‑risk” premium, pulling the price back toward the 20‑day SMA and opening a short‑covering opportunity.
Actionable take‑away – Keep the position long with a modest stop just below the 20‑day SMA (≈ €4.00) and add to the stake on any positive commercial‑operation confirmation for Mestrel in late 2025. Watch the upcoming April‑June event window for detailed commissioning updates; a clear timeline confirmation will be the catalyst that either validates the upside potential or forces a risk‑off re‑assessment.