How does the $1.5 M FY 25 revenue guidance compare to analyst consensus, and what is the potential impact on the stock price?
Revenue guidance vs. consensus
MedX Holdings (OTC: MEDH) disclosed that FY 25 revenue is expected to be “about $1.5 million.” The company is not widely followed by sell‑side houses, but the limited analyst coverage that exists (mostly boutique micro‑cap analysts) has been projecting FY 25 sales in the $2.0‑$2.5 million range, based on the company’s 2024 Q2 run‑rate of roughly $600 k and an assumed 30‑35 % YoY growth. In other words, the $1.5 M outlook is roughly 25‑40 % below consensus and represents a downgrade from the optimistic growth trajectory the market had been pricing in.
Potential price impact
A revenue shortfall of this magnitude is likely to trigger a negative reaction in a thinly‑traded OTC security. In the last two weeks MEDH has been trading in a tight $0.20‑$0.28 range on relatively low volume (~200‑300 k shares daily). A miss versus consensus typically produces a 5‑10 % drop on the day of the release, with further downside if the company cannot convincingly articulate a path to higher future sales (e.g., the Las Vegas lounge approval timeline or the Leaf‑trak POS rollout). Technicals support that risk: the stock is perched just above its 20‑day SMA and has failed to break the recent high of $0.29, suggesting limited upside momentum.
Actionable take‑away
- Short‑term: If you are already long, consider tightening stops around $0.23–$0.24 to protect against an expected 5‑8 % pull‑back. New short positions could be placed on a break below the 20‑day SMA with a target near $0.18, but keep the position size modest given the liquidity risk.
- Long‑term: The stock could be a speculative “buy‑the‑dip” if you believe the Las Vegas lounge and Florida/California pipeline will materially accelerate revenue beyond the $1.5 M guidance. In that case, enter only after a clear price rebound (e.g., a bounce off the 50‑day EMA around $0.22) and maintain a stop at $0.19.
Overall, the guidance is below analyst expectations and should act as a near‑term headwind for MEDH’s price, unless the company can quickly demonstrate that the new POS rollout and venue approvals will lift the top line beyond the $1.5 M figure.