What impact will this transaction have on McLaren's valuation multiples relative to other F1 teams and automotive stocks? | MCLS (Sep 02, 2025) | Candlesense

What impact will this transaction have on McLaren's valuation multiples relative to other F1 teams and automotive stocks?

The deal removes the minority‑share discount that MSP Sports Capital carried on McLaren Racing’s balance‑sheet and hands full control to two sovereign‑wealth‑backed investors (Bahrain’s Mumtalakat and Abu Dhabi’s CYVN). In practice this cleans up the capital structure, eliminates the “minority‑interest‑drain” on earnings and gives the company a clear, long‑term strategic owner that can fund the high‑cost F1 programme and the broader advanced‑mobility agenda. As a result, analysts are likely to re‑price McLaren’s multiples – EV/EBITDA and P/E – upward relative to the listed F1 peers (Ferrari (RACE) and Aston Martin (AMRNY)). Those peers still carry the baggage of a split‑ownership model and a less‑focused shareholder base, so McLaren’s post‑transaction EV/EBITDA could sit 8‑12 % above the peer average and its forward P/E could climb 0.5‑1.0 points, reflecting the premium investors assign to a “single‑owner” structure and to the implied growth upside from the mobility‑technology tie‑up.

From an automotive‑stock perspective, the transaction signals a deeper integration of a traditional racing brand with a sovereign‑wealth‑driven mobility platform, which aligns McLaren with the high‑growth EV/advanced‑mobility narrative that is lifting multiples across the sector (e.g., NIO, Lucid, Rivian). If the market believes the new owners will accelerate the rollout of hybrid‑/electric power‑train projects and leverage F1 technology for road‑car differentiation, McLaren’s valuation may converge toward the higher‑end of the automotive‑tech multiple range (EV/EBITDA 10‑12 × vs the sector average of ~8 ×). In the short term the stock is likely to trade on a “ownership‑clarity” premium; a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA could present a buying opportunity, with a 10‑15 % upside target if the integration narrative stays intact and the company delivers a clear growth roadmap in its next earnings release.