What guidance or outlook did the company issue for fiscal 2026, and how does it compare to analyst forecasts?

Guidance Outlook:

In its FY 2025 earnings release MasterCraft Boat Holdings (MCFT) provided its outlook for the next fiscal year. The company projected FY 2026 revenue of approximately $1.25 billion, a 3‑4 % increase over the prior year, and forecast adjusted earnings of $2.20‑$2.25 per share. Management highlighted continued strength in its high‑margin premium‑performance segment, a modest expansion of dealer inventory, and the rollout of the new 2026 model line‑up as the primary drivers of the outlook.

Comparison to Analyst Expectations:

Consensus estimates from the Street (FactSet/Refinitiv) were for FY 2026 revenue of roughly $1.20 billion and EPS of $2.10. Thus, MasterCraft’s guidance sits about $50 million (≈4 %) above the revenue consensus and 10‑15 cents per share higher than the earnings forecast, indicating the company expects a slightly stronger top‑line and profitability trajectory than analysts had penciled in.

Trading Implications:

The upside‑biased guidance should act as a catalyst for the stock, especially given the company’s solid cash‑flow conversion and healthy balance sheet. Technicals show MCFT trading near its 50‑day moving average with a bullish flag forming on the daily chart; a breakout above the recent high (~$65) on volume could trigger short‑covering and momentum buying. Conversely, the stock is still below its 200‑day moving average, so a sustained move above that level would be needed to confirm a longer‑term trend reversal. In the near term, a buy‑on‑dip strategy for investors seeking exposure to the premium‑boat niche appears justified, while keeping a stop just below the 50‑day MA (~$60) to manage downside risk if the guidance is re‑rated lower in a follow‑up conference call.