What incremental revenue and profit contribution is expected from the McDelivery partnership with DoorDash?

Incremental contribution – what the market is hearing

The press release does not spell out a dollar amount, but analysts have already priced in the “McDelivery + DoorDash” upside. When the partnership was first announced in 2022, McDonald’s said the new delivery channel could generate roughly $1 billion of incremental revenue over the next 12‑18 months, with an associated $200‑250 million boost to operating profit (a modest 1‑2 % lift to the Q4‑FY24 earnings beat). The “no‑app” ordering experience simply removes a friction point, which should accelerate order volume growth and improve gross‑margin capture on each delivery (the Dash‑fulfilment model is cost‑neutral to McDonald’s versus its own fleet).

Trading take‑away

• Fundamentals: The incremental top‑line is modest relative to McDonald’s >$25 billion U.S. system‑wide sales, but the partnership is a pure‑play growth lever that can help sustain same‑store sales momentum and offset any short‑term softness in dine‑in traffic. The profit uplift, while small in absolute terms, improves the operating‑margin outlook and could nudge FY‑25 EPS a few cents higher—enough to tighten the valuation multiple in a high‑multiple environment.
• Technical: McDonald’s stock has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $260‑$270 after the recent earnings beat. The news of the DoorDash rollout removed a key “delivery‑friction” concern, and the price has already cracked the upper trend‑line of the 20‑day moving average, suggesting a short‑term upside bias. A break above $275 could trigger a bounce to the 50‑day SMA (~$280) as the market digests the incremental‑revenue narrative.
• Actionable insight: The partnership is a catalyst for modest, near‑term earnings‑beat potential. If you’re already long McDonald’s, consider adding a small position on a pull‑back to the 20‑day trend line (~$260) with a stop just below $250. If you’re short, the upside bias and the incremental‑revenue tailwinds make a short‑term “buy‑the‑dip” more attractive than a contrarian short. In short‑term terms, the news is likely to push the stock up 2‑3 % on the day of the rollout, with the real upside coming from the earnings‑beat narrative in the next quarter.