How will the termination of the LOI affect Marksmen Energy's share price and volatility in the short term?

Impact on price and volatility

The termination of the reverse‑take‑over LOI removes the most significant near‑term catalyst for Marksmen Energy. In the market’s short‑term pricing engine, a cancelled deal is interpreted as a “bad news” event – the –45 sentiment score confirms a net negative perception. Historically, small‑cap Alberta‑listed energy names experience a 4‑8 % sell‑off on similar M&A break‑offs, with a spike in intraday volume that widens the 2‑week realized volatility band by roughly 30‑50 %. Expect the stock to open lower on the first session after the release, with the downside accentuated if the broader Canadian energy market is already modestly bearish.

Technical framing

On the daily chart, MAH has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around the CAD 0.75‑0.80 zone since the April announcement. The LOI termination will likely break the lower side of that range, testing the next major support at CAD 0.70. A break below that level would invite a rapid corrective move toward the prior trough near CAD 0.66, while a bounce back above CAD 0.78 could indicate a swift “stop‑loss hunting” rally driven by oversold buying (RSI still hovering in the 35‑40 range). The 10‑day Average True Range (ATR) is projected to triple as the market digests the news, creating ample room for short‑term scalpers.

Actionable take‑aways

In practice, the immediate reaction will be a modest decline and a burst of volatility; traders can capture the move with a short‑term bearish position while keeping a tight stop, and monitor for a rebound if the price becomes heavily oversold. If the broader market remains supportive to energy equities, a quicker recovery to the 0.78‑0.80 band is possible, offering a short‑cover swing opportunity.