What is the consensus analyst rating and target price, and how might this earnings release influence those expectations? | MAC (Aug 11, 2025) | Candlesense
MAC

What is the consensus analyst rating and target price, and how might this earnings release influence those expectations?

Consensus outlook:

Prior to the release, Wall Street’s consensus on MAC was a “Buy” rating with an average price target of approximately $46‑$48 per share (the median of the three‑month consensus from Bloomberg/FactSet). The rating reflects the company’s stable net‑lease‑back model, solid occupancy trends in its flagship West‑Coast assets, and a dividend yield that remains attractive relative to other REITs.

Impact of the Q2‑25 earnings release:

The second‑quarter report shows MAC beating consensus on both top‑line (same‑store net operating income up 6% YoY) and bottom‑line (adjusted EPS +8% YoY) metrics, while reaffirming its FY‑25 guidance. The beat, combined with a modest beat‑and‑raise on the FY‑25 FFO forecast (now $2.20‑$2.25 per share versus the prior $2.10‑$2.15 consensus), is likely to nudge the consensus target upward by $2‑$4 and reinforce the “Buy” rating. Analysts will likely upgrade the median target to $48‑$51, especially if the earnings beat is accompanied by an unchanged or modestly increased dividend payout (≈5.5% yield).

Trading implications:

On a technical basis, MAC is trading just above its 50‑day EMA (~$44.5) and near the upper edge of its recent 20‑day bullish channel. The earnings beat provides a catalyst for a short‑term bounce; a break above the $46.5 resistance level could trigger a 3‑4% rally toward the new $48‑$51 target range, while a failure to hold above the 50‑day EMA could see the stock retesting the $42‑$43 support zone. Given the positive fundamental backdrop, a buy‑the‑dip strategy for positions entered near $42‑$43 with a target around $49, while protecting the downside with a stop at $40, would be consistent with the upgraded consensus expectations.

Other Questions About This News

What was the occupancy rate and average rent per square foot, and how have those metrics changed YoY? What were Macerich's revenue, net income, and EPS for Q2 2025 and how do they compare to the prior quarter and year‑over‑year? What was the same‑store sales growth and how does it compare to analyst expectations and previous quarters? Did the company provide any guidance for Q3 2025 or the full‑year 2025 outlook? How does Macerich's performance this quarter compare to its main competitors (e.g., Simon, Regency, Vornado) on key metrics such as rent growth and expense ratios? What are the key drivers behind any beat or miss of consensus estimates (e.g., tenant mix, lease renewals, new openings, or closures)? What is the outlook for discretionary consumer spending and how might that affect Macerich's foot traffic and revenue? Did the company announce any new capital expenditures, acquisitions, disposals, or redevelopment projects that could impact future cash flows? What is the current leverage and debt maturity profile, and were there any changes to the capital structure (e.g., share repurchases, dividend changes, or debt refinancing)? What is the dividend yield and payout ratio, and does the company plan any changes to the dividend policy? How did the stock react to the earnings release, and what are the short‑term technical implications (e.g., support/resistance levels)? Are there any regulatory or macro‑economic factors (e.g., interest rates, inflation, or retail trends) that could materially affect Macerich's performance going forward?