Fundamental comparison
Macy’s (NYSE:M) posted a beat‑and‑carry‑forward in Q2 2025, posting modest top‑line growth (≈3–4 % YoY revenue expansion) and an EPS of $1.18, which comfortably cleared the consensus $1.12 consensus. Same‑store sales rose 2 % after a 1 % dip in the prior quarter, signalling that the “store‑within‑a‑store” repositioning and inventory‑turn management are beginning to bear fruit. By contrast, the broader department‑store ETF (e.g., XLY or SKXY) is still struggling: Kohl’s reported a 1‑point sales decline and sub‑$1.00 EPS, while Nord‑Str
om and Dillard’s posted flat comparable sales and earnings that missed expectations by 5‑6 cents per share. The average peer EPS in the sector hovered around $0.95 with sales growth ≈0 %, putting Macy’s ~20 % ahead on earnings and ~4 % ahead on same‑store sales.
Technical and market dynamics
Macy’s stock has rallied ~8 % since the post‑Q1 2024 lows, now trading around $210‑$215, roughly 0.5 × the 12‑month moving average above the 20‑day SMA and still below the 200‑day SMA, indicating upside potential on a breakout. The sector index is currently in a low‑volume consolidation zone (10‑day RSI ~45), and recent macro data shows a steady consumer‑spending trajectory with the PMI stabilising above 52, which should continue to support discretionary retail. The relative strength index (RSI) for Macy is at 58, above peers’ 50‑55 range, reflecting the earnings beat.
Trading implication
Macy’s Q2 2025 results position it as a relative out‑performer in a lagging department‑store space. Assuming the earnings beat holds and the technical set‑up remains bullish (price holding above the 20‑day SMA, approaching the 50‑day SMA), a medium‑term long position (e.g., 3–6 months) at current levels is attractive, with a stop‑loss just under the 20‑day SMA (~$200) and a target near the 50‑day SMA (~$225). If the broader sector remains flat or deteriorates, any profit‑take on a breakout could be justified, while a sharp reversal in consumer sentiment could trigger a defensive exit.