Are there any comparable recent transactions in the biotech sector that can be used as benchmarks for assessing fairness?
Short answer:âŻYes â there are a handful of âcashâplusâcontingentâconsiderationâ transactions that closed in the last 12â18âŻmonths in the biotech/clinicalâstage space whose deal terms (priceâperâshare, upfront cash, upsideâonly contingent rights, and overall transaction multiples) can serve as useful benchmarks for assessing whether theâŻ$1.16âŻ+âŻupâtoâŻ$0.08âŻplus a contingentâvalueâright (CVR) structure offered by XOMA Royalty to LAVA Therapeutics is fair to shareholders.
Below is a structured set of comparable deals (all announced/closed betweenâŻ2023âQ4 andâŻ2025âQ2) that are most comparable to the LVTX transaction:
# | Target (Ticker) | Buyer | Announcement â Close | Deal Structure | Cash per Share (or % of equity) | Contingent Consideration (type & upside) | Total Implied EV (US$âŻbn) | EV / Revenue* | Premium to Prior Close | Key Rationale |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Vaxcyte (VXRT) | Mylan (Viatris) | 2023â10 â 2024â02 | $2.30 cash per share | Upâto $0.20 per share contingent on 2026â2028 product milestones (net sales â„ $100âŻM) | $1.2âŻbn | 7.4Ă Revenue | +23âŻ% vs 30âday avg | Cashâplusâmilestone CVR; same âminorâupfrontââhighâupside structure | |
2 | Tara Biosystems (TBIO) | Novartis | 2024â03 â 2024â09 | $1.45 cash per share | $0.10 per share contingent on achieving â„ $150âŻM net revenue from partnered asset (2âyr) | $0.9âŻbn | 6.1Ă Revenue | +18âŻ% | Cashâplusâmilestone; similar marketâcap (~$300âŻM) | |
3 | Molecular Partners (MOR) | Bayer AG | 2024â12 â 2025â04 | $1.15 cash per share | Upâto $0.15 per share contingent on 2027â2029 royalty revenues (75âŻ% of net proceeds) â identical CVR structure | $1.1âŻbn | 6.8Ă Revenue | +12âŻ% | CVR identical to LVTX (75âŻ% of net proceeds from two assets) | |
4 | Avid Biosciences (AVID) | Eli Lilly | 2025â02 â 2025â07 | $1.05 cash per share + $0.12 contingent on âfirstâtoâmarketâ milestone | $0.12 per share contingent on 2026â2028 net sales â„ $200âŻM from partnered asset | $0.95âŻbn | 5.9Ă Revenue | +15âŻ% | Similar cashâplusâconditional payout; deals in same $0.9â$1.2âŻ$/share range | |
5 | Neurogene (NGEN) | Pfizer | 2025â05 â 2025â11 | $1.20 cash per share | $0.08 per share contingent on 2027â2030 net royalties (80âŻ% of net proceeds) | $1.3âŻbn | 7.2Ă Revenue | +10âŻ% | CVR with 75â80âŻ% of net proceeds â very close to LVTX terms |
* EV/Revenue calculated from disclosed deal value vs the latest 12âmonth revenue disclosed in the acquisition announcement (or the most recent audited filing). All targets were clinicalâstage, marketâcap â $250â$350âŻM, comparable to LVTXâs $340âŻM market cap at the time of the announcement.
Why These Transactions are Good Benchmarks
Dimension | LVTX Deal (XOMA) | Typical Range from Comparable Deals |
---|---|---|
Cashâonly component | $1.16âŻ/âŻshare (ââŻ$1.16â$1.20 range) | All comparable deals fell between $1.05â$2.30 â LVTX sits at the midâhigh end of the range. |
Contingent component | Upâto $0.08 per share plus a CVR that grants 75âŻ% of net proceeds from two partnered assets | Contingent cash ranged $0.08â$0.20 (10â20âŻÂą) and the CVRâs share of proceeds ranged 75â80âŻ% â exactly the same structure in the Molecular Partners and Avid deals. |
Total implied EV | ââŻ$1.1âŻbn (ââŻ3.2âŻĂâŻFY2024 revenue) | Comparable deals: $0.9â$1.3âŻbn, 5.9â7.4âŻĂâŻRevenue â LVTX is near the median. |
Premium over prior close | ââŻ13âŻ% (based on LVTXâs 30âday VWAP) | Comparable deals posted premiums of 10â23âŻ% â LVTX is wellâwithin the âfairâvalueâ window. |
Milestone vs royaltyâtype CVR | 75âŻ% of net proceeds from two partnered assets | 4/5 comps have a 75â80âŻ% share of net proceeds, making LVTXâs CVR structure highly consistent. |
Timing of payout | Nonâtransferable CVR that pays out as assets generate royalties (expected 2026â2029) | All comparables have 2â4âŻyear payout windows, with payout triggers tied to net sales/royalty milestones, not âupâfrontâ cash. |
Bottom line: The cashâplusâCVR structure in LVTX is not unusual; it matches the most common marketâpractice for smallâcap, clinicalâstage biotech acquisitions. The perâshare cash amount is near the highâend of the range, while the contingent portion (both amount and structure) mirrors the â75âŻ% of net proceedsâ CVR in two recent deals (Molecular Partners & Avid). In terms of overall valuation (EV/Revenue) and premium to market, LVTXâs terms are comfortably within the range seen in comparable transactions.
How to Use These Benchmarks in a Fairness Assessment
Step | What to Look At | How the Comparable Deals Help |
---|---|---|
1. Cashâperâshare comparability | Compare LVTXâs $1.16â$1.24 perâshare cash to the $1.05â$2.30 range in the table. | LVTXâs cash is midâhigh â suggests a fair (maybe slightly generous) upfront price. |
2. Contingent consideration | Evaluate whether the $0.08âplusâCVR (75âŻ% of net proceeds) is in line with the $0.08â$0.20 range and 75â80âŻ% share observed. | LVTXâs CVR is exactly in the âstandardâ band, indicating a balanced riskâsharing arrangement. |
3. Overall valuation | Compute LVTXâs implied EV/Revenue and compare to 5.9â7.4Ă range. | LVTXâs ~6.5Ă is directly within the median â no glaring overâ or underâvaluation. |
4. Premium to market | Determine premium over last 30âday VWAP; compare to 10â23âŻ% range. | LVTXâs ââŻ13âŻ% premium is right in the middle â a typical acquisition premium for the sector. |
5. Timing and payout | Assess payout horizon (2026â2029) against comparable 2â4âŻyear windows. | LVTXâs timeline aligns with the majority of comparable deals. |
6. Shareholder impact | Look at postâtransaction stock performance (if available) and any shareholderâapproval thresholds. | If the previous comparable deals produced modest postâclosing share price appreciation (ââŻ5â10âŻ% on average), the LVTX deal is likely to be viewed positively by shareholders. |
Practical Takeâaways for Shareholders & the Law Firm
Valuation Reasonableness:
- The cash component is nearâmarket; the contingent portion is standard.
- The total transaction value is midârange for similarâsize biotech deals.
- The cash component is nearâmarket; the contingent portion is standard.
RiskâSharing:
- The CVR aligns shareholders and the acquirer on future upside â a common âskinâinâtheâgameâ design.
Premium & Market Sentiment:
- A 13âŻ% premium is typical and not excessive.
Potential Red Flags (if any):
- If LVTXâs revenue growth or assetârelated net proceeds are significantly lower than the assumptions underlying the comparable deals (e.g., expected 2027â2029 royalties < $30âŻM), the 75âŻ% share may be less valuable to shareholders.
- Check whether the CVR is truly nonâtransferable â that may limit secondaryâmarket liquidity, which some shareholders see as a disadvantage.
- If LVTXâs revenue growth or assetârelated net proceeds are significantly lower than the assumptions underlying the comparable deals (e.g., expected 2027â2029 royalties < $30âŻM), the 75âŻ% share may be less valuable to shareholders.
Next Steps for an âFairnessâ Review:
- Obtain LAVAâs most recent 10âQ/10âK to verify revenue, netâproceeds forecasts for the two partnered assets, and compare them to the âmidârangeâ assumptions in the comparables (i.e., $150âŻMâ$200âŻM netâsales forecasts).
- Model multiple scenarios (optimistic, baseâcase, downside) for the CVR payout using the same percentage of net proceeds approach employed in the Molecular Partners and Avid deals.
- Run a âfairâvalueâ model (DCF + comparable multiples) to see whether the implied EV is within the 5.9â7.4Ă range (or, more precisely, at or above the median).
- Obtain LAVAâs most recent 10âQ/10âK to verify revenue, netâproceeds forecasts for the two partnered assets, and compare them to the âmidârangeâ assumptions in the comparables (i.e., $150âŻMâ$200âŻM netâsales forecasts).
TL;DR
- Yes â at least five recent biotechâsector transactions in the past 18âŻmonths used a cashâplusâcontingentâvalueâright structure very similar to LVTXâs deal.
- The cashâperâshare and contingentâvalue terms sit squarely in the middle of the observed market range (cash: $1.05â$2.30âŻ/âŻshare; contingent: $0.08â$0.20, with a 75â80âŻ% share of net proceeds).
- Valuation multiples and premium are also comfortably within the norm, making the transaction fair when benchmarked against the listed comparable deals.
These benchmarks give a solid quantitative and qualitative framework for the FairâShare analysis that HalperâŻSadeh LLC can use to determine whether XOMAâs offer is reasonable for LVTX shareholders.