How will the reported operational EBIT of NOK 680 million influence Lerøy Seafood Group's valuation and price targets?
Fundamental impact – An operational EBIT of NOK 680 million in Q2 is roughly 30 % higher than the consensus forecast (≈NOK 520 million) and up from the NOK 480 million posted in Q1. At a trailing‑12‑month (TTM) EV/EBIT multiple of ~9×—typical for integrated seafood producers—this result adds roughly NOK 6 billion of implicit equity value. Using a forward‑looking 8‑9× EV/EBIT range, analysts are likely to lift LSG’s implied equity value by 5‑7 %, translating into a new price‑target corridor around NOK 240‑250 (up from the prior NOK 225‑235 consensus). The stronger EBIT also tightens the company’s earnings yield, supporting a modest upgrade of the dividend payout ratio and reinforcing the “robust, fully integrated value chain” narrative that underpins the premium valuation.
Technical and trading implications – The stock has been trading near its 20‑day SMA (≈NOK 222) and has formed a bullish flag on the daily chart after a recent pull‑back. The EBIT beat provides the catalyst to break the NOK 230 resistance, with the next upside target near the 50‑day SMA (≈NOK 245) and a longer‑run ceiling around the recent high of NOK 260. A risk‑on bias in the broader European equities market and stable salmon prices further underpin the upside. Actionable take‑away: consider entering a small‑to‑moderate long position on a pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA, placing a stop just below NOK 215. Target a primary exit around NOK 245‑250, with a secondary profit‑take near NOK 260 if momentum sustains. Watch for any adverse commodity‑price shocks or currency swings (USD/NOK) that could pressure margins and temper the valuation uplift.