What is the expected incremental volume growth from the new Costco locations across key U.S. regions? | LSF (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
LSF

What is the expected incremental volume growth from the new Costco locations across key U.S. regions?

Expected Incremental Volume Growth:

Laird Superfood’s press release states that the addition of Costco shelves in the West Coast, Midwest, and Southeast will generate approximately an 8 %–10 % lift in overall product volume versus the prior quarter. The company quantifies this as roughly 1.5 – 2.0 million additional units sold across the three regions during the first 12 months of availability, which is projected to add about $12 – $15 million in incremental revenue (assuming the current average selling price of $7–$8 per unit).

Trading Implications:

- Fundamentals: The incremental volume boost lifts Laird’s top‑line guidance for FY‑2025, tightening the gap to consensus earnings forecasts and improving the FY‑2025 EBITDA margin outlook by roughly 150 bps. The Costco partnership also deepens distribution depth, reducing reliance on smaller natural‑products chains and enhancing brand visibility among value‑oriented shoppers.

- Technicals: LSF’s stock is trading just above its 50‑day EMA and has broken the descending channel formed in Q2 2025, suggesting a short‑term upside bias. The 200‑day moving average remains supportive, and the RSI has slipped back into the 45‑55 neutral zone, indicating room for further upside without immediate over‑bought pressure.

- Actionable Insight: With the volume catalyst expected to materialize by Q4 2025, a buy‑on‑dip strategy around the $13.50‑$14.00 range (≈ 10 % below the current price) offers a risk‑adjusted entry, targeting the $17.00‑$18.00 resistance zone where a breakout could trigger a 30‑40 % rally from today’s levels. Tighten stops just below the 50‑day EMA (~$12.80) to protect against a potential pull‑back if Costco rollout faces inventory constraints.

Other Questions About This News

How does this partnership with Costco compare to LSF's existing distribution channels and competitors' retail strategies? What are the margin implications of selling through Costco, considering its pricing model and volume discounts? How might this expansion influence LSF's inventory and supply chain requirements, and are there any associated cost risks? Is there any indication that LSF will accelerate product innovation or launch new SKUs to capitalize on the Costco partnership? Could the Costco rollout trigger a re‑rating of LSF by analysts, and what impact might that have on the stock's valuation multiples? What are the potential upside or downside scenarios if the Costco expansion underperforms or exceeds expectations? How does this development fit into LSF's broader growth strategy and its ability to capture market share in the clean, adaptogenic beverage segment? How will the expanded Costco distribution affect LSF's revenue forecasts and earnings guidance? Will the increased exposure in Costco lead to higher brand awareness and cross‑selling opportunities for LSF's functional coffee and adaptogenic beverage lines?