How will the $18.2 million order affect LightPath’s revenue guidance and earnings outlook for FY2026?

The $18.2 million contract, slated for delivery in calendar year 2026, will almost certainly be folded into LightPath’s FY 2026 topline guidance. At an average gross margin of roughly 45‑50 % for its optics and imaging portfolio, the order should add between $8‑9 million of contribution profit, nudging earnings‑per‑share forecasts higher than the current consensus. Because the deal comes from a “global technology leader,” analysts will likely interpret it as a validation of LightPath’s next‑generation infrared platform, prompting the company to raise its FY 2026 revenue outlook by a modest 3‑5 % (roughly $12‑20 million) and improve its adjusted EBITDA margin by a few percentage points, all else equal.

From a trading perspective, the news injects a clear upside catalyst. The stock has been trading near its 50‑day moving average with modest upside momentum; the order adds concrete near‑term demand that could break the short‑term resistance around $12‑$13. A short‑term buy‑on‑dip strategy around the current pull‑back (if volume confirms buying interest) is justified, with a target near the previous high (~$15) and a stop just below the 200‑day moving average (~$9). Keep an eye on LightPath’s next earnings call for a formal guidance update—if management officially incorporates the order, the upside could be even more pronounced. Conversely, monitor execution risk (supply‑chain constraints, defense budget volatility) which could temper the upside if delivery timelines slip.