How likely is a settlement or judgment in this lawsuit and what timeline is expected for a resolution?

Likelihood and Timing of Resolution

Class‑action litigation against a large, publicly‑traded defender like Lockheed Martin usually takes 12‑18 months from filing to a decisive event (settlement, dismissal, or trial‑date setting). Because the suit was only filed in August 2025 and the complaint covers purchases through July 2025, the earliest the court would grant a motion for a preliminary settlement or a dispositive “summary‑judgment” decision is late Q4 2025 at the earliest, with most settlements materializing mid‑2026 when the parties have completed discovery and any mediation rounds. Historically, about 70‑80 % of large‑cap aerospace securities class actions end in a settlement rather than a full trial, driven by the high cost of litigation for the defendant and the relatively modest per‑share exposure. Given that Robbins LLP is actively urging shareholders to join the suit (a sign of a well‑funded plaintiff side) but there is no indication of a pending settlement offer, the probability of a settlement in the next 6‑9 months is low‑to‑moderate (≈30‑40 %), while the chance of a judgment (either summary‑judgment or trial verdict) before mid‑2026 is also modest (≈20‑30 %). The remainder of the probability mass (≈30‑40 %) remains in the “ongoing litigation” bucket, where the case could linger into 2027 without a resolution.

Trading Implications

- Current pricing already reflects a negative sentiment (‑70) and a modest risk premium; the stock is trading near its 200‑day moving average with support around $480 and resistance near $525. The 2‑month RSI is near 45, indicating no immediate over‑bought or over‑sold condition.

- Short‑term (next 1‑3 months) the lawsuit is unlikely to move the stock significantly unless a press‑release or court filing appears (e.g., a motion to dismiss, a settlement proposal). Traders can use a tight‑range straddle or sell near‑term put spreads (e.g., June‑July 2025) to capture premium while limiting downside if a settlement is announced.

- Medium‑term (6‑12 months), the key catalyst is a settlement announcement (typically a modest cash payout). The market usually rewards a settlement with a ~2–4 % upside on the day of the announcement, then a modest drift higher as the litigation risk fades. Positioning with out‑of‑the‑money call spreads at strikes 5–10 % above current price (e.g., $560‑$580 calls expiring Dec‑2025) can capture that upside with limited capital.

- Risk Management: Keep a stop‑loss at or below the 200‑day support (~$470) to guard against any unexpected adverse legal ruling (e.g., a court‑ordered dismissal that could trigger a short‑squeeze or a sudden regulatory announcement). Monitor SEC filings (Form 8‑K) and court docket updates for any material event—these typically precede a market move.

In short, a settlement or judgment is more likely than not but not imminent; traders should focus on risk‑adjusted exposure and be ready to act on the first credible legal filing or settlement announcement.