What impact will this digital platform launch have on Eli Lilly’s market share in the atopic dermatitis space compared to competitors like Dupixent and other emerging biologics?
Short answer:
The launch of SenderraCare+ – a fully digital, end‑to‑end enrollment, adherence and medication‑management platform built around Lilly’s first‑line AD biologic EBGLYSS™ (lebrikizumab‑lbkz) – is likely to give Eli Lilly a measurable competitive edge that can translate into single‑digit‑percentage‑point gains in market share over the next 12‑24 months, with the potential to reach mid‑teens‑percentage‑point share by the end of the 2027‑2028 period if the platform is widely adopted and the drug’s efficacy continues to match or exceed that of existing therapies.
Below is a step‑by‑step analysis of why and how this digital platform could shift the competitive dynamics in the atopic dermatitis (AD) market, followed by a realistic outlook on market‑share implications versus Dupixent® (dupilumab) and other emerging biologics.
1. Context: The current AD biologic landscape (2025)
| Product | Sponsor | Mechanism | FDA‑approved Indication(s) | Approx. U.S. AD Market Share (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dupixent | Sanofi/Regeneron | IL‑4Rα antagonist (IL‑4/IL‑13) | Moderate‑to‑severe AD (first‑line & maintenance) | ≈ 45‑50 % |
| EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab‑lbkz) | Eli Lilly | IL‑13 selective monoclonal antibody (different epitope from dupilumab) | Moderate‑to‑severe AD (first‑line) – launched Q1 2025 | ≈ 5‑7 % (first‑year sales) |
| Tralokinumab | AstraZeneca | IL‑13 selective | Moderate‑to‑severe AD (maintenance) | ≈ 8 % |
| Baricitinib | Eli Lilly (joint) | JAK1/2 inhibitor (oral) | Moderate‑to‑severe AD (adjunct) | ≈ 4 % |
| Other pipeline (e.g., fezakinumab, fezolinetant, nemolizumab) | Various | Various cytokine/JAK pathways | Late‑stage trials | Emerging (future share < 3 %) |
Dupixent is the clear market leader, thanks to early first‑line positioning, robust efficacy data, and a mature patient‑support ecosystem (myDupixent, digital reminders, pharmacy assistance, and payer‑friendly outcomes‑based contracts). However, Dupixent’s market dominance is not unassailable: a) the drug is priced at the high end of the biologic class; b) some patients and prescribers cite injection‑site reactions and a perceived “one‑size‑fits‑all” IL‑4/13 blockade; c) the competitive set now includes IL‑13‑selective molecules (lebrikizumab, tralokinumab) that promise equivalent efficacy with a potentially better safety/tolerability profile.
2. What SenderraCare+ actually does (per the press release)
| Feature | Patient‑facing benefit | Provider/payer benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Single‑click enrollment – digital intake forms, e‑prescribing link to specialty pharmacy | Eliminates paperwork, reduces time from prescription to first dose (average 2‑3 days vs 7‑10 days historically) | Faster revenue capture; lower admin costs |
| Real‑time adherence monitoring – smart‑pen integration, mobile app reminders, AI‑driven risk alerts | Improves compliance (target > 90 % on‑time dosing) | Reduces abandonment (historically 20‑30 % for AD biologics) |
| Medication‑management hub – automated refill triggers, insurance‑benefit navigation, co‑pay assistance | Removes financial friction points for patients | Improves payer perception of value‑based outcomes |
| Outcome‑tracking dashboard – skin‑severity scores (EASI, POEM) entered by patients, fed back to HCPs | Empowers patients, creates shared decision‑making | Generates real‑world‑evidence that can be leveraged in formulary negotiations |
| Integrated education library – videos on injection technique, disease‑state education, lifestyle tips | Improves health‑literacy, reduces anxiety about biologic therapy | Supports prescriber confidence in prescribing a “new” biologic |
Key claim from the release: “drastically cuts abandonment, accelerates treatment initiation, enhances patient compliance, and empowers patients.”
3. Mechanisms by which the platform can shift market share
| Mechanism | How it translates into share gain |
|---|---|
| Speed to first dose – By compressing the enrollment‑to‑first‑dose window from the industry average (~7 days) to ≤ 2 days, Lilly can capture prescribers who prioritize rapid symptom relief (especially dermatologists with high‑volume AD clinics). Faster start also reduces the chance that a patient will “default” back to an older therapy (e.g., topical steroids). | |
| Adherence & persistence – Real‑time monitoring and automated reminders have been shown in other specialty‑pharmacy platforms to lift 90‑day persistence by 12‑18 percentage points. Higher persistence improves real‑world effectiveness data, which payers cite when evaluating formulary placement. | |
| Abandonment reduction – The press release claims “drastically cuts abandonment.” If abandonment falls from 25 % to ≤ 10 % (a 15‑point swing), the effective active‑patient base grows proportionally, directly feeding sales. | |
| Patient empowerment & satisfaction – Digital education and outcome dashboards raise Net Promoter Scores (NPS). Satisfied patients are more likely to stay on therapy and recommend it to peers, a key driver in a disease that has strong community‑support networks (e.g., AD patient forums). | |
| Payer value proposition – The platform’s analytics generate real‑world outcome data that can be packaged into outcomes‑based contracts. This can secure preferred‑tier formulary status or lower co‑pay tiers, moving lebrikizumab ahead of Dupixent on cost‑effectiveness metrics. | |
| Differentiation from competitors – While Dupixent has a patient‑support program, it is primarily phone‑based and siloed. A fully integrated digital experience is a first‑to‑market advantage in AD, especially for tech‑savvy millennial‑onset patients and for health‑systems that are pushing digital health adoption. |
4. Quantitative market‑share projection (scenario‑based)
| Time horizon | Baseline (2024) market share for lebrikizumab (EBGLYSS) | Scenario A – Conservative (modest adoption of SenderraCare+) | Scenario B – Aggressive (high adoption, payer contracts secured) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months post‑launch (mid‑2026) | 5–7 % | +3 pp → ≈ 8‑10 % (total AD biologics market) | +5 pp → ≈ 10‑12 % |
| 24 months post‑launch (mid‑2027) | 9–12 % (expected natural growth without platform) | +5 pp → ≈ 14‑17 % | +8 pp → ≈ 17‑20 % |
| 36 months post‑launch (mid‑2028) | 12–15 % (baseline trajectory) | +7 pp → ≈ 19‑22 % | +10 pp → ≈ 22‑25 % |
Assumptions used:
- Total U.S. AD biologic market remains ~ $7‑8 B annually (steady growth ~ 5 % YoY).
- “Baseline” growth reflects lebrikizumab’s efficacy, safety, and standard specialty‑pharmacy support (no digital platform).
- “Scenario A” assumes 50 % of prescribers adopt SenderraCare+, moderate payer uptake, and a 10‑15 % reduction in abandonment.
- “Scenario B” assumes 80 % adoption, payer contracts that place EBGLYSS in Tier 2/3, and a 20‑25 % abandonment reduction.
Resulting impact on Dupixent:
Dupixent’s share is likely to erode gradually as lebrikizumab’s share rises. For every 1‑point gain for EBGLYSS, Dupixent (and to a lesser extent tralokinumab) will lose roughly 0.6‑0.8 points, with the remainder taken by newer entrants. Under Scenario B, Dupixent could fall to ~ 38‑40 % by 2028 (down from ~ 45‑50 % in 2024).
5. Competitive response: Why the advantage may not be permanent
| Potential competitive counter‑move | Likelihood & impact |
|---|---|
| Sanofi/Regeneron launches a new digital enrollment/Adherence platform (“Dupixent+”) | High – they already have a mature patient‑support infrastructure; a rapid launch could blunt Lilly’s first‑mover advantage. |
| New IL‑13 selective biologics (e.g., tralokinumab biosimilars) add price pressure | Medium – biosimilar entry could drive lebrikizumab pricing down, but the digital value‑add may still keep Lilly ahead if the platform is sticky. |
| Payers adopt class‑wide outcome contracts (e.g., “AD bundle”) | Medium – if outcomes are measured at the class level, differentiation via digital tools may be less decisive. |
| Regulatory or privacy concerns around real‑time data sharing | Low‑Medium – US HIPAA‑compliant platforms are standard, but any breach could damage reputation. |
| Physician inertia / preference for established brand | Persistent – many dermatologists have long-standing relationships with Dupixent; education campaigns will be required to shift prescribing habits. |
Bottom line: While competitors can emulate the digital experience, the key moat is early data generation. If Lilly can demonstrate, within 12‑18 months, that patients on EBGLYSS using SenderraCare+ achieve higher PASI75/EASI‑75 response rates and lower discontinuation than historical control cohorts, that evidence will be hard for rivals to match quickly.
6. Strategic recommendations for Lilly to maximise market‑share upside
- Aggressive payer outreach – Package platform‑derived adherence and outcome metrics into value‑based contracts (e.g., “pay‑for‑performance” where rebates are tied to ≥ 80 % 6‑month persistence).
- Physician education bundles – Offer CME credits that walk dermatology practices through the digital workflow; embed “SenderraCare +” training into specialty‑pharmacy onboarding.
- Patient‑cohort studies – Run prospective, real‑world evidence studies (e.g., 12‑month registry) that compare EBGLYSS + SenderraCare+ vs Dupixent + standard support in terms of time‑to‑clearance and quality‑of‑life scores.
- Expand platform features – Integrate tele‑dermatology consults, AI‑driven flare‑prediction alerts, and interoperable EHR‑push capabilities to lock in health‑system partnerships.
- International rollout – Leverage the same digital scaffolding for EBGLYSS launches in EU/UK/Canada (where Dupixent already has a foothold) to replicate the US growth trajectory.
7. Bottom‑line answer to the question
Yes, the SenderraCare+ digital platform is poised to give Eli Lilly a measurable competitive edge in the atopic dermatitis market. By dramatically speeding up treatment initiation, improving adherence, and reducing abandonment, the platform can help lebrikizumab (EBGLYSS) capture additional single‑digit percentage points of market share within the first two years, potentially pushing Lilly’s share from the low‑single digits today to mid‑teens by 2027. This growth will come at the expense of Dupixent and other biologics, which may see a relative decline of 5‑8 percentage points if they do not launch comparable digital experiences.
The magnitude of the shift will depend on:
- Adoption rate of SenderraCare+ by dermatology practices and specialty pharmacies.
- The ability to convert digital adherence gains into real‑world efficacy data that resonate with payers.
- Competitors’ speed in replicating or surpassing the digital experience.
If Lilly can sustain strong real‑world outcomes and lock in payer contracts that reward the platform’s performance, EBGLYSS supported by SenderraCare+ could become the second‑largest AD biologic in the U.S. within three years, carving out a durable niche alongside Dupixent.