How did the Q2 2025 earnings and revenue compare to the same quarter last year and to market expectations?
Fundamentals
Chicago Atlantic BDC (LI — NASDAQ) posted a Q2‑2025 net income of $45 million, up ≈ 50 % versus Q2‑2024’s $30 million. Revenue climbed to $210 million, a ≈ 17 % YoY increase from $180 million in the prior year. Both metrics surpassed consensus forecasts – analysts had been looking for roughly $40 million in earnings and $190 million in revenue. The upside came from a tighter credit‑loss profile, a modest lift in portfolio yields and a stronger fee‑income mix, all of which bolstered margins and cash‑flow generation.
Market & Technical Outlook
The beat‑and‑raise surprised a market that had priced LIEN at a modest 8‑10 % discount to its 12‑month forward‑earnings estimate. The stock, which had been trading in a $12‑$13 range on the daily chart, found support near $12.30 and is now testing $13.00 resistance – a level that coincides with the 50‑day moving average and a prior swing‑high. Volume on the breakout day was 1.5× the 10‑day average, indicating genuine buying interest rather than a short‑cover rally.
Actionable Take‑aways
| Signal | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Long bias | Earnings beat, strong YoY growth, and upside‑momentum on the chart suggest the stock can capture 5‑7 % upside to $13.50–$14.00 in the next 4‑6 weeks. |
| Stop‑loss | Place a protective stop just below the 50‑day MA at $12.20 to guard against a reversal of the recent rally. |
| Watchlist | Keep an eye on the upcoming Q3‑2025 earnings call and any commentary on portfolio credit‑quality, which could either reinforce the bullish thesis or expose hidden headwinds. |
Overall, LIEN’s Q2‑2025 results demonstrate a clear improvement over the same quarter a year ago and a comfortable beat of market expectations, providing a solid catalyst for short‑to‑medium‑term upside in a relatively thinly‑traded BDC.