How does Li Auto’s Q2 2025 performance compare to its main competitors such as Nio, BYD, and Tesla in China? | LI (Aug 15, 2025) | Candlesense
LI

How does Li Auto’s Q2 2025 performance compare to its main competitors such as Nio, BYD, and Tesla in China?

Fundamentals & Relative Performance

Li Auto is set to release its unaudited Q2 2025 results on Aug 28, a window that investors will use to gauge whether the company can sustain the ~40 % YoY delivery growth it posted in Q1 2025 (≈73 k units) and the expanding margin from its “extended‑range” model lineup. In the same period, Nio’s Q2 deliveries slowed to roughly 65 k units after a strong Q1, while BYD continued its high‑volume push, reporting >350 k total NEV shipments in Q2 (≈30 % of the Chinese market). Tesla’s China‑made Model 3/Y deliveries plateaued near 80 k units, but the automaker benefited from a higher average selling price and a 4 % gross margin uplift due to cost‑saving measures at its Shanghai Gigafactory. If Li Auto can keep its delivery growth above 30 % and improve its gross margin toward the 20 %‑22 % range (up from ~18 % in Q1), it would narrow the gap with Tesla on profitability while still trailing BYD’s scale and Nio’s premium positioning.

Technical & Trading Implications

The LI stock currently trades in a tight 4‑day consolidation range around CNY 180, just below its 50‑day EMA (CNY 184) and facing a descending 200‑day SMA (CNY 190). A breach above the EMA with volume above the 30‑day average would signal the market’s confidence that Li Auto’s Q2 numbers beat consensus (≈CNY 8.5 bn net profit and 80 k deliveries). In that scenario, a short‑to‑medium‑term bullish play—entering at the breakout level with a stop just below CNY 176—could capture a 6‑8 % upside to the next resistance near CNY 200. Conversely, a miss or a delivery slowdown below 70 k units would likely trigger a sell‑off toward the 200‑day SMA, offering a potential short entry around CNY 176 with a target at CNY 160. Keep close watch on the earnings release and any forward guidance on Li Auto’s upcoming L9 and L10 models, as those catalysts will further differentiate its trajectory from Nio, BYD, and Tesla in the Chinese NEV battle.

Other Questions About This News

What are the expected revenue and earnings figures for Li Auto’s Q2 2025, and how do they compare to analyst consensus estimates? Will Li Auto provide any guidance or outlook for the remainder of 2025, and what does that imply for its growth trajectory? Are there any notable changes in vehicle deliveries, average selling price, or gross margin that could affect the stock’s valuation? What impact might the Q2 2025 results have on Li Auto’s stock price volatility ahead of the earnings release? Did the company disclose any new strategic initiatives, partnerships, or product launches that could influence future earnings? How are macro‑economic factors in China, such as consumer demand and government EV subsidies, reflected in the Q2 2025 results? Will the earnings release include any revisions to previous guidance or forecasts that could affect long‑term investment theses? Are there any unexpected items—such as one‑off gains or losses, inventory write‑downs, or regulatory penalties—that investors should be aware of? How might the Q2 2025 results influence institutional and retail sentiment toward Li Auto in the upcoming trading sessions?