How does LHV's recent buyback activity compare to recent buyback programs of peer banks in the Baltic region?
Comparative Overview
LHV’s latest buy‑back – a focused acquisition of its own shares on the Nasdaq Tallinn market from 22 to 28 August 2025 – is a short‑window, opportunistic maneuver rather than a multi‑year, multi‑million‑euro program. The transaction’s sentiment score of 40 signals a modestly bullish tone, but the disclosed volume is nowhere near the scale of recent buy‑backs by the region’s larger banks. For example, Swedbank (the Baltic‑dominant lender) announced a €150 million share‑repurchase plan in Q2 2025, executed over a six‑month horizon with quarterly tranche purchases. SEB’s Baltic arm similarly disclosed a €100 million, three‑year buy‑back that has already absorbed roughly 0.8 % of its free float. Even smaller peers such as Luminor have run periodic “open‑market” repurchases amounting to €20–30 million annually. In contrast, LHV’s August window appears to be a tactical use of excess cash and a signal of confidence in its valuation, likely amounting to a few million euros – a fraction of the peer programs.
Trading Implications
Because LHV’s buy‑back is both smaller and more time‑constrained, its immediate price impact is likely limited to short‑term upward pressure and a slight tightening of the float, rather than a sustained upward drift seen in banks with larger, ongoing repurchase schedules. Technical charts show LHV hovering near a short‑term resistance band around 12.5 EUR; the buy‑back could help a break above this level, especially if volume spikes coincide with the repurchase dates. However, the broader Baltic banking sector remains under pressure from tightening credit conditions and modest earnings growth, so the rally may be capped unless peers also step up their repurchase activity. From a tactical standpoint, consider a buy‑the‑dip approach if LHV slips back below the 12‑EUR support, targeting a 5‑10 % upside on a breakout above 12.5 EUR, while keeping a tight stop at 11.5 EUR to guard against sector‑wide pullbacks. Monitoring peer banks for any escalation in their buy‑back plans will be crucial – a coordinated increase in repurchases could reinforce the sector’s upside bias and validate a longer‑term bullish stance on LHV relative to its Baltic peers.