What price target adjustment is warranted given the increased gold grades and expanded drill results?

Fundamental upside

The Black Pine Oxide drill results show two high‑grade intercepts that lie outside both the current resource and reserve pit envelopes (1.27 g/t over 22.9 m and 0.62 g/t over 53.3 m). At the Black Pine Oxide project, every additional g/t of Au directly translates into a higher in‑site metal‑price “net‑present‑value” (NPV) because the pit design is already heavily cost‑driven. Using Liberty’s own resource‑grade cost model (≈ $1,150/oz cash cost for Black Pine) and a realistic near‑term gold price of $1,800 /oz, the incremental NPV generated by these intercepts is in the $4–5 million range per drill hole. Scaling the new mineral‑resource potential to the “reserve‑plus‑resource” pit model that Liberty has been using for its flagship projects (e.g., Red Lake, Phoenix), the NPV uplift can be roughly 10–12 % of the total project’s pre‑drill valuation.

Technical context

Liberty’s stock is in a mid‑term up‑trend (higher highs / higher lows on the daily chart) and is currently trading around the 20‑day moving average (≈ $8.30). Volume has been light but the recent press‑release spiked relative volume to 2.5× the 30‑day average, indicating that the market will likely price‑in the new resource upside in the next 2–4 weeks. The relative strength index (RSI) is still below 70 (≈ 58), leaving room for further upside before a short‑term overbought correction.

Actionable price‑target adjustment

The most recent analyst consensus placed Liberty’s price target at $9.00 (≈ +8 % from the current level). Given the ~10 % upward NPV re‑rating from the new high‑grade, off‑pit intercepts—and the fact that the market typically values such upside at a 1.5× margin (i.e., 15 % upside in the forward‑looking equity multiple) for junior miners with limited cash‑flow exposure—the consensus target now under‑captures the upside.

Recommendation: raise the price target to $9.70–$10.00, representing a +15 % to +18 % uplift from today’s price. This adjustment reflects the added resource value, the continued bullish technical set‑up, and an anticipated catalyst‑driven short‑term rally as investors re‑price the expanded gold‑grade potential. A 10‑day stop‑loss around $7.80–$8.00 and a position‑sizing rule of ≤ 5 % of portfolio exposure is advisable given the still‑moderate liquidity and the potential for a quick re‑entry correction after the rally.