What is the expected timeline for resolution of the case and how might it affect the stock’s long‑term valuation?

Resolution timeline

A securities‑law suit against Luminar (NASDAQ: LAZR) will first move through the federal court docket system. Even a “straight‑forward” case that proceeds without a disputed‑facts phase usually takes 6‑12 months to reach a summary‑judgment or settlement decision, with the initial pleadings, class‑certification motions and discovery lasting roughly the first 3‑4 months. If the parties elect to negotiate, a settlement could be reached earlier (often within 4‑6 months of filing); however, if the case proceeds to trial, expect a 12‑month plus horizon before any final judgment is rendered.

Long‑term valuation impact

While the lawsuit creates near‑term downside pressure—evidenced by the sharply negative sentiment score (‑70) and a likely increase in volatility—the fundamental economics of Luminar’s lidar business remain unchanged. The core drivers (government‑backed autonomous‑vehicle incentives, expanding OEM partnerships, and a high‑margin hardware platform) still support a multi‑year growth trajectory. If the case is settled or dismissed, the stock can revert to its prior valuation multiple (≈ 2‑3 × 2024 EV/EBITDA) and the recent price dip may even become a buying opportunity. Conversely, a material adverse judgment (e.g., a sizeable punitive‑damage award or an injunction on future offerings) would force a downward re‑rating of cash‑flow projections, compressing the long‑term multiple to ≈ 1‑1.5 × EV/EBITDA and capping upside.

Actionable take‑away

Maintain a short‑term defensive posture—tight‑stop losses around 15 % below the current price and a watch on court‑filing dates (mid‑Q4 2025) for any clue on the case’s pace. For investors with a bullish view on the lidar market, consider a patient, staggered entry after the initial legal turbulence subsides, especially if the case moves toward settlement or dismissal. The longer‑run upside remains tied to industry secular growth rather than the lawsuit, so the stock’s intrinsic value is likely to recover once the legal risk is clarified.