Litigation timeline & milestones
- Complaint filing (now) – The class‑action complaint was lodged in early August 2025 on behalf of investors who bought LAZR shares between 20 Mar 2025 and 14 May 2025. The first formal step is the court’s docketing and service of defendants, which typically occurs within a few weeks of filing.
- Class‑certification phase (≈ 2‑3 months) – The plaintiffs must persuade a U.S. District Court that the case meets the requirements of a securities‑class action (commonality, adequacy, etc.). In most securities cases the court rules on certification within 60‑90 days, but a “pre‑certification” motion for dismissal could extend this to roughly 90‑120 days after filing.
- Discovery & motions (≈ 6‑12 months) – Once the class is certified, parties enter discovery (document production, depositions, expert reports). For a relatively tight timeframe (March‑May 2025 purchase window) the discovery window is usually 6‑9 months, with a possible 30‑day “discovery cut‑off” after which the parties must exchange expert reports.
- Settlement negotiations / trial (≈ 12‑24 months total) – Most securities class actions settle before trial, typically 12‑18 months after filing. If negotiations stall, the case proceeds to summary‑judgment motions and then, if necessary, a bench or jury trial—often scheduled 18‑24 months from filing. A settlement (or court‑approved settlement) can occur at any point in this window, often after the 12‑month mark when the parties have a clearer picture of exposure.
Trading implications
The filing introduces a near‑term legal‑risk premium to LAZR’s price. Expect up‑side volatility as the market prices in the probability of a settlement (often at a modest per‑share payout) versus a prolonged trial that could keep the stock depressed. In the short term (next 1‑2 months) the stock may see sell‑pressure from investors exiting to avoid litigation exposure; volume spikes and a modest decline (5‑8 % from current levels) are plausible.
If the case proceeds to discovery without an early settlement, the risk premium will remain and the stock may trade in a narrow range, with the 50‑day moving average likely acting as support. Conversely, any early settlement announcement (typically after the 12‑month mark) would trigger a short‑cover rally and potentially a 10‑15 % upside as the uncertainty premium unwinds. Traders should watch for court docket updates, settlement‑talk signals (e.g., press releases from Robbins LLP or Luminar’s investor relations), and options‑implied volatility spikes as a gauge of market expectations. Positioning with a short‑term put spread or protective puts can hedge downside, while a bullish call spread may capture upside if a settlement is announced.