What is the potential financial exposure for Luminar if the class action proceeds to settlement or judgment?

The filing does not disclose a specific damages figure, so any estimate must be based on comparable securities‑fraud suits in the high‑growth tech space. For a company of Luminar’s size (≈ $1 – $1.5 billion market‑cap as of August 2025) settlements for alleged misstatements of forward‑looking guidance or product milestones typically fall in the $30 million‑$150 million range, representing roughly 2‑10 % of market value. A judgment that includes treble damages and attorneys’ fees could push the upper bound toward the higher end of that range, especially if the court finds material misrepresentations that materially affected the share price during the “boom‑bust” periods of 2023‑2024.

From a trading perspective, the exposure ceiling is enough to pressure the stock if investors price in a worst‑case settlement, but it is unlikely to be a catastrophic blow to the balance sheet. Current technicals show the stock trading near its 200‑day moving average with modest upside bias; however, the headline‑risk premium remains elevated (reflected in a widened implied‑volatility skew and a 2‑3 % price discount versus peers). Actionable insight: keep a tight stop‑loss (≈ 4‑5 % below current levels) and watch for any court filing updates; a settlement announcement in the low‑tens‑of‑millions would likely be absorbed as a short‑term catalyst, while a multi‑hundred‑million judgment could trigger a sharper correction and present a short‑selling or hedging opportunity.