How will the 5.1% net sales decline and 4.2% comparable sales decline affect Kohl’s FY2025 revenue forecasts?

Kohl’s Q2 2025 numbers— a 5.1% drop in net sales and a 4.2% slide in comparable‑store sales — signal a material softening in top‑line momentum that will almost certainly force the company to trim its FY 2025 revenue outlook. Even though gross margin improved by 28 bps, the sales contraction erodes the benefit of the margin lift, leaving full‑year EBITDA and EPS under pressure. Management’s “raises full‑year outlook” comment likely refers to a modest revision to operating expense leverage rather than a sales‑growth reversal; analysts will therefore expect the FY 2025 revenue forecast to be revised down by roughly the same magnitude as the year‑to‑date decline (≈4‑5%). The downgrade will tighten the consensus EPS estimate and could widen the discount to its historical average EV/EBITDA multiple, keeping the stock vulnerable to further downside.

On the technical side, KSS is trading below its 50‑day moving average and has broken a descending‑channel trendline that has held since Q4 2023, suggesting short‑term bearish bias. Key support sits near $38.00 (the low of the prior three‑month range) while resistance at $44.00 aligns with the recent 200‑day MA and the prior peak. Given the sales weakness and probable revenue‑forecast cut, a short‑term trading strategy targeting a move toward the $38‐$40 zone is reasonable, especially if the company’s FY 2025 guidance is revised lower in the upcoming earnings call. Conversely, traders should watch for any unexpected “turn‑around” commentary or accelerated cost reductions that could cushion earnings; a bounce back above the 50‑day MA would open the door for a short‑cover rally. In short, expect a downward revision to FY 2025 revenue, heightened earnings volatility, and a bias toward bearish positioning on KSS until new guidance or a clear operational improvement emerges.