How will the Memphis investment affect KP Tissue's operating margins in the upcoming quarters? | KPTI (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense

How will the Memphis investment affect KP Tissue's operating margins in the upcoming quarters?

Impact on Operating Margins

KP Tissue’s $15‑million Memphis expansion is being positioned as a “cost‑efficiency hub” that will consolidate U.S. production, reduce logistics overlap, and enable a higher‑margin product mix. Management’s commentary in the Q2‑2025 release highlights a projected 2‑4 percentage‑point lift in operating margin beginning in Q4 2025, with incremental improvements as the new facilities reach full capacity. The added capacity also supports the company’s strategy to capture a larger share of the growing U.S‑consumer tissue market, which should bolster top‑line growth while the fixed‑cost base is spread over a larger volume base, further strengthening margins in the next two to three quarters.

Trading Implications

From a fundamentals standpoint, the margin expansion narrative dovetails with a strong earnings beat and a 70‑point sentiment score, suggesting a bullish bias. Technically, KP Tissue is trading above its 50‑day moving average and has recently broken a short‑term resistance level around $22.50, with the RSI hovering near 60—indicating momentum without being overbought. Given the expected margin uplift, the stock appears positioned for a mid‑term upside of 8‑12 % if the company delivers the anticipated efficiency gains.

Actionable Insight: Consider initiating a long position with a modest stop‑loss just below the 50‑day MA (~$21.80) to capture the anticipated margin‑driven upside. Monitor the upcoming Q4‑2025 earnings release for the first‐quarter impact of the Memphis plant; a confirmed improvement in operating margin will likely validate the bullish case and provide a catalyst for further price appreciation. If the margin improvement under‑delivers, consider a protective put or a reduced position as the margin‑growth narrative falters.