Timeline Outlook: KOIL’s press release only confirms that three new projects have been awarded; it does not spell out a specific commissioning or cash‑flow start date. In the offshore‑renewable sector, the period from award to first‑of‑commercial (FOC) normally spans 12‑24 months for “green‑field” builds and 6‑12 months for brownfield or fast‑track extensions. Given KOIL’s modest scale and the 2025 Q2 timing of the award, the prudent market consensus is that revenue and EBITDA contributions will likely materialise in the latter half of 2026, with cash‑flow impact trickling in during 2027 as the projects move from construction to operation.
Trading Implications: At today’s levels KOIL is trading near its 12‑month moving average, with the price currently testing a slight bullish channel that has held since the Q2 earnings beat. The earnings beat (adjusted EBITDA margin 3% vs. consensus 2%) and the new‑project pipeline should keep short‑term sentiment positive, but the lack of a concrete cash‑flow timetable adds upside risk if the projects come online earlier than the 12‑24 month window. Consider a ‘buy‑on‑dip’ if the stock falls 5‑7 % below the $3.20–$3.45 range, targeting a 12‑month upside of 20‑30 % as the 2026‑27 earnings guidance upgrades roll out. Conversely, if the price spikes above $4.00 before any concrete project‑milestone updates, take partial profits and tighten stop‑losses near $3.70 to protect against a pull‑back on the “wait‑for‑cash‑flow” narrative.