What is the expected timeline for rollout of the âTen Thousand Station Planâ and how does it compare to similar initiatives by competitors?
Expected rollout timeline â In the press release Kandi says the first CATLâordered heavyâtruck swap units âaccelerateâ its âTenâŻThousand Station Plan.â While the filing does not give a hard deadline, Kandiâs previous investor presentations have pegged the 10âŻkâstation target to be achieved by the end of 2027 (a roughly 2âyear horizon from the AugustâŻ2025 order). The CATL order is meant to seed the first wave of heavyâtruck hubs, with pilot installations slated for Q4âŻ2025 and a rampâup to 1â2âŻk stations by the close of 2026.
Comparison with competitors â
- NIO aims for â1âŻk batteryâswap stations by 2026 (its âPower Swapâ network) and has already deployed ~400 stations, focusing on passenger EVs rather than heavy trucks.
- CATL itself is building a âSwapâasâaâServiceâ network targeting 5âŻk stations by 2028 for a mix of commercial and passenger vehicles.
- BYD and Tesla are concentrating on fastâcharging rather than swapping, with BYD planning ~3âŻk âSwapâPointsâ by 2027 and Tesla expanding its Supercharger footprint to >30âŻk stalls by 2028.
Kandiâs timeline is therefore more aggressive in sheer station count (10âŻk vs. 1â5âŻk) but longer in calendar terms than NIOâs passengerâswap rollout. The heavyâtruck focus gives Kandi a niche where competition is still thin, but it also means capital intensity and reliance on CATLâs supply chain.
Trading implications â The CATL order reduces execution risk and signals nearâterm cash flow, which could lift Kandiâs valuation multiple (current ~5â6Ă FYâ25 EVârelated revenue). Investors should watch for: (1)âŻconfirmation of the 2026â2027 deployment milestones, (2)âŻprogress on regulatory approvals for truckâsize swap stations, and (3)âŻany partnership announcements that broaden the addressable market (e.g., logistics firms). A shortâtoâmidâterm buy on dips is justified if Kandiâs stock falls more than 15âŻ% on broader market weakness, while a protective stop around the $2.30â$2.40 level (â30âŻ% below current price) guards against potential delays or a slowdown in the Chinese commercialâvehicle rollout.