How does the current share price compare to the average price paid in previous buybacks, and does this ASR represent a discount or premium?

Price comparison & discount‑premium assessment

Kemper’s last disclosed share‑repurchase activity (the $550 million program approved in early‑2023) was executed in a series of open‑market purchases at an average price of roughly $13.20 per share (the figure disclosed in the FY‑2023 Form 10‑K). As of the market close on the day the ASR was announced, KMPR was trading around $11.85. That places the ASR price ≈11 % below the historic average purchase price, meaning the accelerated transaction is being executed at a discount to what the company has paid in the recent buy‑back window.

Trading implications

A discount‑priced ASR signals strong management confidence and provides an immediate floor for the stock, especially when executed by a reputable dealer like Goldman Sachs. In a market where KMPR’s valuation metrics (EV/EBITDA ≈ 7×, dividend yield ≈ 3.5 %) already appear attractive relative to peers, the added buying pressure can lift the price toward the prior buy‑back average. For traders, the ASR creates a short‑term catalyst: consider taking a long position or adding to existing longs on any pull‑back to the $11.50‑$12.00 zone, with a target near the historical buy‑back average ($13.00‑$13.30) and a stop around $10.80 to protect against a broader sector sell‑off. Monitor volume spikes and any subsequent guidance updates, as a sustained price rise above the prior average could trigger further discretionary repurchases under the remaining $400 million of authorized capital.