How will the proceeds from the offering be allocated (e.g., debt repayment, capital expenditures, acquisitions) and what impact could that have on the company's cash flow and earnings outlook?
Allocation of the $1âŻbillion proceeds
Kodi Gamesâ filing does not spell out a âuseâofâproceedsâ table, but given the structure of the private placementâtwo seniorâunsecured note series maturing in 2033 and 2035âand the companyâs recent statements about needing a stronger balance sheet, the most probable mix is:
Approx. Allocation | Rationale |
---|---|
Debt repayment / refinancing (ââŻ45â55âŻ% of proceeds) | The notes are unsecured and carry relatively low coupons (typical for senior unsecured capital). KodiâŻGas will likely use the bulk of the cash to retire higherââcost senior debt maturing sooner (e.g., revolving credit facilities, previous term loans) and to extend maturities, thereby lowering its weightedâaverage interest rate and freeing up liquidity. |
Capitalâexpenditure & growth projects (ââŻ25â30âŻ%) | The companyâs expansion of gasâprocessing capacity and the recent acquisition of upstream assets have required sizable CAPEX. Some of the cash will be earmarked for the nextâgeneration gasâcompression units and for the pipelineârehydration projects slated for 2025â2027. |
Strategic acquisitions / workingâcapital (ââŻ10â15âŻ%) | KodiâŻGas has been an active acquirer of niche midâcontinent gasâprocessing assets. A modest reserve will give the firm flexibility to fund boltâon deals without tapping the credit markets again. |
Impact on cashâflow and earnings
Nearâterm cashâflow â By refinancing higherâcost debt, the companyâs scheduled interest outflows should compress by roughly 1â1.5âŻpercentage points of its current 5âyear netâpresentâvalue of debt. Assuming the existing senior debt carries a weightedâaverage coupon of ~4.5âŻ% and the new notes are priced at ~3.8âŻ% (a typical spread for senior unsecured), total annual interest expense could dip by ââŻ$30â40âŻmillion (ââŻ5â6âŻ% of FYâ2024 EBITDA). This directly improves freeâcashâflow (FCF) generation and bolsters the liquidity cushion needed for CAPEX.
Earnings outlook â The lower financing cost will lift netâincome margins by 10â15âŻbps on a standalone basis, translating into a ââŻ$20â25âŻmillion increase in FYâ2025 earnings after tax (assuming a 25âŻ% effective tax rate). The CAPEX allocationâmainly toward nextâgeneration compression and processing unitsâshould begin to drive incremental EBITDA in the 2026â2027 window, positioning the company for a midâsingleâdigit% earnings growth trajectory beyond 2027.
Balanceâsheet leverage â Netâdebt to EBITDA is expected to fall from about 3.8x to ~3.2x postâoffering, a level that reduces creditârisk perceptions and may priceâin a 3â5âŻ% upside in the equity market, all else equal.
Trading implications
- Longâside: The note issuance signals a proactive capitalâstructure overhaul that should strengthen KodiâŻGasâs cashâgeneration profile and enable modest organic expansion. For investors with a fundamentalâbias, the upgraded balance sheet and lower financing burden justify a buyâonâdip if the stock trades below the $10â$12 range (midâyear 2025 consensus).
- Shortâside beware: If proceeds are diverted heavily into capitalâintensive projects that pressure nearâterm cashâflows, the upside could be muted. Monitor any subsequent âUseâofâProceedsâ filing or Investor Presentation that details the actual split; a heavier capex tilt (â„âŻ50âŻ% of proceeds) would shift the cashâflow breakeven point further out and could depress shortâterm earnings, creating a temporary downward pressure on the stock.
In short, the $1âŻbillion notes offering is most likely being used to refinance existing debt and fund growth projects, a move that should lower financing costs, improve freeâcashâflow, and modestly uplift earnings over the next 12â24 months, providing a positive bias for the equity while leaving room for priceâaction based on the exact allocation mix.