How will the reported EUR 315.4 million profit affect KBC’s upcoming earnings guidance and target price for the stock?

The €315.4 million net profit for FY 2024/25 comes in well above the consensus forecast of roughly €260 million that most sell‑side houses were using in their models. The surplus of €55 million translates into an additional €0.17‑0.20 in earnings per share, which will likely prompt KBC’s CFO to lift the full‑year guidance when the official outlook is published next week. Analysts will probably raise the 2025‑2026 EPS outlook by 7‑10 % and, assuming the current price‑to‑earnings multiple of about 12‑13× remains in place, the implied target price should be nudged up by roughly €2‑€3 per share (from the current €42‑€44 range to €44‑€47). The stronger profit also reinforces the bank’s capacity to sustain its €1.2 billion dividend payout, supporting a “dividend‑plus‑growth” narrative that many institutional investors favor.

From a technical standpoint, KBC is trading near the upper half of its 50‑day moving average (≈€41.5) and has just broken a short‑term resistance band at €42.5 on higher volume, indicating bullish momentum. A pull‑back to the 20‑day MA around €40‑€41 could present a low‑risk entry for traders looking to capture the upside from the upgraded guidance. Conversely, a failure to hold the €44‑€45 ceiling would suggest the market is pricing in a more modest guidance lift. In short, the profit beat should lift earnings expectations and target prices, creating a short‑term buying opportunity on any dip, while keeping an eye on the forthcoming guidance release for confirmation.